摘要
在“双碳”政策的大背景下,中国碳中和债券市场发展势头迅猛,鉴于当前碳中和债券价值评估存在实践案例少、方法单一、评估因素复杂等问题,本文为碳中和债券价值评估提供了一个新视角,即在基于金融市场风险传导的机制下,对传统收益法进行了折现率的修正以降低估值结果与实际偏差,再利用BS模型评估了碳中和债券中难以显化的环境效益。最后结合案例应用发现评估价值要高于发行价格,碳中和债券价值被低估,估值模型有合理性。研究有助于提高碳中和债券市场活跃度,并为碳中和债券价值评估实务提供一定参考。
Against the background of the“dual carbon”policy,the development momentum of China’s carbon neutral bond market is rapid.Given the problems of limited practical cases,single method,and complex evaluation factors in the current value evaluation of carbon neutral bonds,this article provides a new perspective for the value evaluation of carbon neutral bonds.Based on the mechanism of financial market risk transmission,the traditional income method has been modified with a discount rate to reduce the deviation between the valuation results and the actual situation,The BS model was used to evaluate the environmental benefits that are difficult to manifest in carbon neutral bonds.Finally,combined with case studies,it was found that the evaluation value was higher than the issuance price,and the value of carbon neutral bonds were underestimated.The valuation model is reasonable.Research can help improve the market activity of carbon neutral bonds and provide some reference for the practical valuation of carbon neutral bonds.
作者
杨卿
李春波
王蕾
Yang Qing;Li Chunbo;Wang Lei(Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,China)
出处
《中国资产评估》
2024年第1期48-54,共7页
Appraisal Journal of China
基金
云南省教育厅社会科学研究基金项目“乡村振兴背景下数字经济赋能云南林业高质量发展的作用机制研究”(项目编号2023Y0797)
云南省专业学位研究生教学案例库建设项目《面向资产评估的统计案例库》
云南省研究生优质课程建设项目《中级应用统计学》。
关键词
碳中和债券
GARCH模型
预测误差方差分解
价值评估
Carbon neutral bonds
GARCH model
Variance decomposition of prediction error
value assessment
