摘要
[目的]探究珠三角地区2005—2020年土地利用变化及其对碳储量的影响,并对2035年珠三角的土地利用格局和碳储量进行模拟预测,以期为珠三角地区“双碳”目标下的国土空间规划和生态决策提供科学依据。[方法]基于2005—2020年4期土地利用数据,以珠三角城市群为研究区域,采用PLUS模型和InVEST模型对该区的土地利用变化和碳储量演变进行分析,并预测其2035年土地利用空间格局和碳储量变化趋势。[结果]①2005—2020年,珠三角地区碳储量先增加后减少,林地、建设用地和未利用地增多促进碳储量增长了4.82×10^(7)t,耕地、草地和水域减少导致碳储量减少了5.10×10^(7)t。②预计2035年,随着建设用地和林地的增加,该区碳储量较2020年增长5.75×10^(7)t,生态环境向好发展。③该区碳储量表现出“四周高,中部低”的空间分布格局,与土地利用空间分布具有显著一致性,即碳储量高值区集中在林地、耕地和草地,碳储量低值区集聚在建设用地。[结论]随着未来城市发展需要,政府部门应进行土地综合开发利用,采取生物、工程技术等生态修复措施,提升区域固碳能力,助力实现碳中和目标。
[Objective]The land use change and its impact on carbon storage was studied from 2005 to 2020,and the land use pattern and carbon storage in the Pearl River Delta in 2035 were simulated and predicted,in order to provide a scientific basis for the territorial spatial planning and ecological decision-making under the dual carbon goal in the Pearl River delta region.[Methods]Based on land use data for four periods from 2005 to 2020,land use change and carbon storage evolution in the Pearl River delta urban agglomeration were analyzed by using the PLUS model and the InVEST model.The spatial pattern of land use and the carbon storage change trend in 2035 were predicted.[Results]①From 2005 to 2020,carbon stocks initially increased and then decreased.The increased area of forest land,construction land,and unused land increased carbon stocks by 4.82×10^(7)t,and the decreased area of cultivated land,grassland and water area decreased carbon stocks by 5.10×10^(7)t.②In 2035,with an expected increase of construction land and forest land,carbon storage will increase by 5.75×10^(7)t compared with 2020,and the ecological environment will improve.③Carbon storage showed a spatial distribution pattern of"higher in the surrounding areas and lower in the middle"that was significantly consistent with the spatial distribution of land use,i.e.,the high-value carbon storage areas were concentrated in forest land,cultivated land,and grassland,and the low-value carbon storage areas were concentrated in construction land.[Conclusion]With the needs of future urban development,government departments should carry out comprehensive land development and utilization,adopt ecological restoration measures based on biological and engineering technology,and improve regional carbon sequestration capacity so as to achieve carbon neutrality.
作者
廖超明
韦媛媛
云子恒
谭绵方
唐丹
Liao Chaoming;Wei Yuanyuan;Yun Ziheng;Tan Mianfang;Tang Dan(College of Natural Resources and Surveying and Mapping,Nanning Normal University,Nanning,Guangxi 530001,China;Guangxi College of Natural Resources,Chongzuo,Guangxi 532100,China)
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期410-420,共11页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“基于卫星对地观测技术的广西‘山’字型构造时空演变特征研究”(42164001)
广西2022年自治区级职业教育专业教学资源库建设项目(GZ202220)
广西2022年本科教育教学重点项目建设经费(602030389173301)。
