摘要
更加充分、更高质量的就业是实现经济高质量发展的应有之义。文章采用中国2000—2021年的季度时间序列数据,基于时变参数向量自回归(TVP-SV-VAR)模型,实证检验财政政策与货币政策对就业质量的时变及动态影响。研究发现:落实减税降费政策、优化财政支出结构在短期和中长期均有效地促进了高质量就业。面对国际金融危机冲击时,财政政策在短期内实现了对就业质量的保障,而在长期内政策效果受到削弱,这说明高质量就业的实现并非“斯须之作”。数量型货币政策对就业质量的调节作用较为平稳,其影响具有滞后性,而价格型工具更能有效熨平外部冲击对就业质量的影响。相较货币政策,财政政策对就业质量的调控具有更强的拉动作用与抗冲击能力。
Fuller and higher-quality employment is a proper way to achieve high-quality economic development.This paper empirically examines the time-varying and dynamic impact of fiscal policy and monetary policy on employment quality,based on the TVP-SV-VAR model,using China's quarterly time series data from 2000 to 2021.The study finds that the implementation of tax and fee reduction policies and the optimization of the fiscal expenditure structure have effectively promoted high-quality employment in the short,medium and long term.In the face of the impact of the international financial crisis,fiscal policy has been able to safeguard employment quality in the short term,while its effect has been weakened in the long term,suggesting that the realization of high-quality employment is not easy.Quantitative monetary policy is smoother in regulating the quality of employment with a lag,while price-based instruments are more effective in ironing out the impact of external shocks on the quality of employment.Compared with monetary policy,fiscal policy has a stronger pull and shock-resistant ability to regulate employment quality.
作者
许梦博
寇依
XU Mengbo;KOU Yi(China's Public Sector Economy Research Centre,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;School of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)
出处
《华东经济管理》
北大核心
2024年第5期90-102,共13页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“低利率环境下货币政策效应检验及新时期货币政策调控模式选择研究”(19BJY016)。
