摘要
以传统供应链订货模型和行为运作管理框架为理论指导,针对分别面对供应中断和随机产出风险的供应风险情境,从不确定供应链结构和传统理论模型分析角度出发,以供应中断和随机产出情境下双供应商的订货决策理论模型的构建与最优解解析为基础,设计针对性实验室实验并开发订货决策数据采集系统,以实现真实订货决策数据的统计检验分析。利用实验室实验分析与理论建模相结合的方法研究不确定环境下供应链实际订货决策行为,剖析实际订货决策的行为表现和变化规律,对供应中断和随机产出情境下双供应商的供应链订货决策行为进行系统性研究。研究结果表明,在理论双源订货最优情境下,决策者向两供应商的实际订货量和总订货量均显著偏离理论最优,两供应商的订货量间表现出明显的供应锚定行为,特别是决策者向两供应商订货时呈现出显著的负相关依赖性订货行为,低中断组的负相关依赖性行为相较于高中断组较弱,高利润组的负相关依赖性行为相较于低利润组更强。
With the traditional supply chain ordering model and behavioral operation management framework as the theoretical guidance, we aim at the supply risk scenario of dual suppliers facing supply disruption and random yield. Based on the analysis of the uncertain supply chain structure and the traditional theoretical model, we construct the theoretical model and analyze the optimal solution for the ordering decision of the dual-source supplier under the supply disruption and random yield scenarios, design the targeted laboratory experiments, and develope the ordering decision data collection system to realize the statistical test analysis of the real ordering decision data. This paper uses the combination of laboratory experimental analysis and theoretical modeling to research the actual ordering decision behavior of supply chains under uncertain environments for dissecting the behavioral performance and changing regulations of actual ordering decisions. We systematically investigate the supply chain ordering decision behavior of dual suppliers under supply disruption and random yield scenarios. The research findings show that in the theoretical dual-source ordering optimum scenario, there is a significant deviation from the theoretical optimum in both the actual and total order quantities from the decision-maker with each supplier. Significant supply-anchored behavior was exhibited between the ordering quantities of the dual suppliers. In particular, decision-makers exhibite a significantly negative correlation-dependent ordering behavior when ordering from dual suppliers. The low-disruption group have weaker negative correlation-dependent behavior compared to the high-disruption group, the high-profit group have stronger negative correlation-dependent behavior compared to the low-profit group.
作者
赵世杰
荣雪娇
高雷阜
ZHAO Shi-jie;RONG Xue-jiao;GAO Lei-fu(Institute for Optimization and Decision Analytics,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin 123000,China)
出处
《系统工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期95-105,共11页
Systems Engineering
基金
辽宁省科技厅博士科研启动基金项目(2019-BS-118)
国家自然科学基金项目(51704140)
辽宁省教育厅基金项目(LJ2019JL017)
辽宁省自然科学基金指导计划项目(2019-ZD-0032)
辽宁省重点攻关项目(LJ2019ZL001,LJ2020ZD002)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(21YJCZH204)
校人文社科研究一般项目(23-A044)。
关键词
双源供应
供应中断
随机产出
实验室实验
订货决策
Dual-source Supply
Supply Disruption
Random Yield
Laboratory Experiments
Ordering Decisions
