摘要
构建高质量发展水平测度指标体系,采用熵权-TOPSIS法对2011—2020年成渝双城经济圈经济发展质量进行评估与多维度分析,在此基础上运用空间杜宾模型对双城经济高质量发展的影响因素进行研究,然后利用灰色模型预测并比较2021—2035年双城经济圈与京津冀、长三角和粤港澳大湾区的高质量发展趋势。结果表明:(1)双城经济圈高质量发展整体水平逐步提升,但区域差距较大,各维度发展水平差异明显;(2)数字经济、新型城镇化、金融发展等因素对于双城经济圈高质量发展影响不同,且有不同的空间效应;(3)未来15年内双城经济圈高质量发展水平将稳步提升,与其他三个城市群的差距逐步缩小。
Constructing a high-quality development level measurement index system and using the entropy weight-TOPSIS method to evaluate and conduct multi-dimensional analysis on the economic development quality of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle from 2011 to 2020,and on this basis the authors use the spatial Dubin model to study the influencing factors of the high-quality development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle,and then they use the grey model to predict and compare the high-quality development trends among Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area during 2021-2035.The results show that the overall level of high-quality development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle has gradually been improved,but the regional gap is large,and the development level of each dimension is significantly different,that the digital economy,new urbanization,financial development and other factors have different impacts on the high-quality development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle with different spatial effects,and that the high-quality development level of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle will be steadily improved,and the gap with the other three urban agglomerations will be gradually narrowed in the next 15 years.
作者
苟兴朝
杨继瑞
GOU Xing-chao;YANG Ji-rui(School of Finance and Economics,Changjiang Normal University,Chongqing 408100,China;School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610064,China)
出处
《西华师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2024年第2期57-69,共13页
Journal of China West Normal University:Philosophy & Social Sciences
基金
重庆市社会科学规划重点项目“成渝地区双城经济圈高质量发展:理论分析、测度评价与提升路径”(2021NDZD07)
重庆市教育科学规划重点课题“重庆市高等教育高质量发展:理论分析、水平测度与提升路径研究”(2021-GX-030)。
关键词
成渝地区双城经济圈
高质量发展
影响因素
预测
Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle
high-quality development
influencing factors
prediction
