摘要
黄河上游是我国重要的生态屏障,高原地区的气候、地形和水文特征对黄河水文循环和生态环境具有重要影响。研究采用M-K检验和小波分析法,开展黄河上游12个气象站及4个水文站气温、降雨以及径流的突变、趋势和周期分析,揭示了黄河上游气象水文要素的演变规律。结果表明:黄河上游气温以0.336℃/10 a的速率增长,气温的突变发生在1996年;降水量以6.07 mm/a速率减少,减少速率较低,基本处于稳定状态,突变发生在1982年,主周期为16 a;黄河沿站流量上升速率为0.23(m^(3)s^(-1))/a,唐乃亥、青铜峡、头道拐站流量下降速率分别为1.23(m^(3)s^(-1))/a、1.41(m^(3)s^(-1))/a和3.83(m^(3)s^(-1))/a,径流量总体波动较小。最后,采用R/S重标极差法预测了未来气象水文要素的发展趋势,结果表明气温和降水的可持续性不强;而径流发展具有反持续性,未来的趋势将可能与过去相反,其中唐乃亥站流量的反持续性较强。
The Upper Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier in China,and the climate,terrain,and hydrological characteristics of the plateau region have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle and ecological environment of the whole Yellow River.This study applied a M-K test and wavelet analysis to investigate the abrupt changes,trends,and periodicity of data sequences from 12 meteorological stations and 4 gauging stations in the upper Yellow River Basin.The evolution laws of meteorological and hydrological data were revealed.Results shows that the temperature in the Upper Yellow River Basin increases at a rate of 0.336℃/10a,and the abrupt change in temperature occured in 1996.The precipitation decreases at a rate of 6.07mm/a,with a low decrease rate and basically in a stable state.The abrupt change of the mean precipitation of these 12 stations occured in 1982,with a main cycle of 16 years.The increase rate of runoff at the Huangheyan Station is 0.23(m^(3)s^(-1))/a while the runoff at the Tangnaihai,Qingtongxia,and Toudaoguan stations are with decrease rates of 1.23(m^(3)s^(-1))/a,1.41(m^(3)s^(-1))/a,and 3.83(m^(3)s^(-1))/a,respectively.The fluctuation of runoff is relatively small.Finally,the R/S rescaled range method was used for future trend prediction.Results show that the development sustainability of temperature and precipitation in the future is not strong.While the development pattern of runoff at each station demonstrates anti-sustainability,indicating that the future trend of the runoff may be opposite to that in the past.Particularly,the anti-sustainability of the development trend at the Tangnaihai station is strong.
作者
陈璐
蒋明伟
杨彬林
占挺
陈佳蕴
刘子铮
CHEN Lu;JIANG Mingwei;YANG Binlin;ZHAN Ting;CHENG Jiayun;LIU Zizheng(Water Conservancy Project&Civil Engineering College,Xizang Agricultural and Animal Husbandry University,Linzhi Xizang,860000;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan Hubei,430074;Hubei Key Laboratory of Digital Valley Science and Technology,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan Hubei,430074,China)
出处
《高原农业》
2024年第2期127-134,共8页
Journal of Plateau Agriculture
基金
“十四五”国家重点研发计划青年科学家项目(2023YFC3081000)
中央引导地方科技发展资金第一批项目(西藏)(XZ202301YD0044C)。
关键词
黄河上游流域
水文气象要素
趋势
突变
周期
the upper yellow river basin
hydrological and meteorological data
trends
abrupt
periodicity
