摘要
习近平主席于2020年9月代表中国宣布应对气候变化的“双碳”目标,2021年3月部署了“构建清洁低碳安全高效的能源体系”“构建新型电力系统”的“十四五”重点工作任务^([1]),并相继出台了多项相关政策要求^([2~4]),明确了我国能源电力转型的实施路径.2022年10月,中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会报告进一步提出“积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和.”
Based on the strategic goals of China’s energy transformation,this paper performs a scenario analysis of China’s energy and power system in 2020–2060,with a particular focus on the composition of the primary energy consumption and power supply.A preliminary analysis of the development scenario of China’s energy and power system has revealed that the installed wind and solar power capacity in China will continuously rise from 2020 to 2060,exceeding 50%of the total by 2035,becoming the main installed capacity,and accounting for over 70%by 2050.The installed capacity of nonfossil energy power generation has gradually increased with the rapid development of wind and solar power generation,reaching over 85%by 2050 and over 90%by 2060.Furthermore,the installed capacity of coal-fired power will decline after 2030,with the decline rate slowing down after 2050.Approximately 300 million kW of coal-fired power plants are proposed to be retained from 2055 to 2060,providing important support for a safe and stable power system operation.In terms of power generation,the share of nonfossil energy power generally shows a continuous upward trend of up to more than 50%between 2030 and 2035.Moreover,between 2045 and 2050,the annual wind and solar power generation will account for over 50%of the total generation,becoming the main electricity source.The annual power generation of coal-fired power has been showing a downward trend since 2030 and may fall below 1 trillion kWh after 2050.The power system exhibits a substantially high proportion of new energy characteristics.China’s new energy power system is proposed to have the following six features:(1)High proportion of renewable energy;(2)high proportion of power electronic equipment;(3)multienergy complementary integrated energy;(4)cyberphysical and smart energy;(5)clean,efficient,and low-/zero-carbon;and(6)highly resilient and intrinsically safe and reliable.The revolution trends of five core indicators,including the share of nonfossil energy in primary energy consumption
作者
周孝信
赵强
张玉琼
Xiaoxin Zhou;Qiang Zhao;Yuqiong Zhang(China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China)
出处
《科学通报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第8期983-989,共7页
Chinese Science Bulletin
基金
国家电网公司总部科技项目“规模化综合能源生产单元对我国电力系统转型路径的影响研究”(1400-202255326A-2-0-YS)。
关键词
能源体系
全国代表大会
实施路径
电力系统发展
碳中和
稳妥推进
scenario analysis
the primary energy consumption mix
power source composition
major indicators of the new power system
key technologies
integrated energy production unit
