摘要
本文构建了最优锚货币内生选择模型,分析一国如何在两种锚货币中作权衡取舍。理论分析发现,锚货币发行国的经济规模越大,对外贸易成本越低,则非锚货币发行国锚定该货币的程度越高。本文测算了2006—2019年包括人民币在内的五大国际货币在全球各经济体中被锚定的程度,并使用引力模型分析其影响因素,实证结果与理论推断一致。进一步研究发现,对于贸易开放度更高、资本账户更开放、经济规模更小的非锚货币发行国,锚货币发行国的经济规模和贸易成本的影响更强。定量分析显示,仅靠经济增长和贸易便利化不足以将人民币锚定效应提升至美元的水平,而以双边本币互换协议为代表的金融政策能显著提高经济增长和贸易便利化对人民币锚货币地位的促进作用,进一步释放人民币国际化潜力。
With the sustained growth of China's economy and its increasing openness,the renminbi(RMB)has been rising in importance in the international monetary system.The RMB is increasingly becoming the"anchor currency"for the exchange rates of other countries.However,there is no systematic analysis of the RMB as an anchor currency,especially from the perspective of the international monetary system,comparing the differences and influencing factors of the RMB versus other international currencies as an anchor.In a recent paper,lzetzki et al.(2019)evaluate the anchoring role of the US dollar,but they do not propose a theory of endogenous anchor currency choices nor quantitatively assess the anchoring effect of the RMB.Therefore,given this gap in the literature,it is of considerable importance to study the anchoring effect of the RMB from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.The report of the 20th CPC National Congress emphasizes accelerating the establishment of a new development pattern,with domestic circulation as the main force and mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation.Under this new development pattern,RMB internationalization plays a crucial role in connecting domestic and international dual circulation.The Central Financial Work Conference of 2023 proposes the goal of building up China's financial strength,emphasizing the need to expand high-level financial openness and steadily promote the internationalization of the RMB.In this context,studying the impact of factors such as the size of the economy,trade costs,and financial openness policies on the anchoring effect of the RMB can provide policy insights for the subsequent steady and prudent promotion of RMB internationalization in China.Based on both theoretical modeling and empirical analysis,this paper systematically investigates the endogenous selection process and factors that influence how a country's currency becomes the anchor currency for the exchange rates of other countries.The theoretical framework builds on optimal curren
作者
芦东
余吉双
何青
LU Dong;YU Jishuang;HE Qing(School of Finance,Renmin University of China;Penghua Fund Management Co.,Ltd)
出处
《金融研究》
北大核心
2023年第10期8-27,共20页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20ZDA053)的资助
国家自然科学基金项目(71903191)的资助。
关键词
锚货币
锚定效应
经济规模
贸易成本
双边本币互换
Anchor Currency
Anchor Effect
Economic Size
Trade Cost
Bilateral Currency Swap
