摘要
为了识别21世纪以来中国旅游经济适应性循环发展周期性阶段,采用空间分析和地理探测器对其发展演化规律及影响机理进行探究。结果表明:①2001—2020年中国旅游经济适应性循环共经历了快速增长期(r-K阶段)、波动释放期(Ω-K-Ω阶段)、重组再发展期(α-r阶段)3个周期性阶段;②不同属性的发展演化特征存在差异,潜力的空间扩散特征显著,关联度具有一定的“沿海沿边沿铁路”集聚倾向,韧性则呈现明显的“胡焕庸线”分布特征;③宏观经济的迅速发展是快速增长期旅游经济适应性强劲的关键驱动力,产业的内陆转移和生态环境的不断改善是波动释放期旅游经济适应性提升的重要保障力,产业结构的不断优化和区域发展战略的推进落实是重组再发展期旅游经济适应性质变的核心支撑力;④不同阶段的影响因子存在差异,呈现由旅游经济市场化,到创新合作与协调可持续,再到硬件设施与软件创新共同推动的影响要素转变。通过潜力(奠定基础)、关联度(协调合作)、韧性(提质升级)的三维驱动,推进要素更新、结构优化、功能完善和阶段发展,逐步实现旅游经济整体的向前适应性发展。
In order to identify the cyclical stages of the adaptive cycle of China's tourism economy since the 21st century,this study used spatial analysis and geographical detectors to explore its evolution and impact mechanism.The results show that:1)China’s tourism economy presents a‘rapid growth-volatility release-reorganization and redevelopment’of the adaptive cycle of evolution process.2001—2007 was a period of rapid growth(r-K stage),which means sustained and stable development in rapid growth.The period from 2008 to 2014 was a stage of volatility release(Ω-K-Ωstage),which was characterized by a shock development trend after repeated shocks in the stable development.Structural rigidity and weak growth of the tourism economy were important features of this stage.2015—2020 was the restructuring and redevelopment period(α-r stage),which means redevelopment on the new development path after restructuring.In 2020,as the end of this development phase,the impact of Covid-19 was significant,there was the possibility of discontinuous development into the release stage.2)The evolution characteristics of different attributes are different.The spatial diffusion characteristics of potential dimension are significant,showing the spatial distribution characteristics along the southeast coast to the inland.The correlation degree has a certain tendency of‘coastal and border railway’agglomeration.And the resilience showed obvious distribution characteristics of the‘Hu line’,and the high-level agglomeration in the southeast region was particularly significant.3)There are significant differences in the developmental characteristics and driving forces at different stages of the adaptive cycle.The rapid development of macro-economy is the key driving force of strong adaptability of tourism economy in the period of rapid growth.Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and Guangdong have achieved super-stage development.The inland transfer of industries and the continuous improvement of ecological environment are important guarantee
作者
王新越
郭利贞
Wang Xinyue;Guo Lizhen(Management College,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266000,Shandong,China)
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期297-308,共12页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(21BJY202)资助。
关键词
旅游经济
经济适应性
适应性循环
周期性规律
经济韧性
tourism economy
economic adaptability
adaptive cycle
periodic rule
economic resilience
