摘要
建立健全生育支持政策体系是破解我国低人口出生率难题的关键所在。本文从住宅房产税的视角出发,以2011年沪渝两改革试点为研究对象,应用纠偏合成控制法实证分析了住宅房产税对人口出生率的政策效应,为推进房产税改革与立法工作提供了有益启示。结果表明:上海住宅房产税对人口出生率存在明显的抑制效应,且该效应在时间上表现出持续性;重庆住宅房产税对人口出生率存在显著的促进效应,该效应随时间出现边际递减,最终达到相对稳定的趋势;沪渝两种模式住宅房产税对人口出生率的影响存在异质性,主要是由实施细则的差异引起的。基于以上结论,建议在推进房产税立法时,应充分考虑地区间的差异性,实施激励人口生育的住宅房产税政策,同时住宅房产税要与其他政策配合使用,以丰富人口生育支持政策体系。
Establishing and improving the fertility support polices system is great significance to break out the dilemma of China's low fertility rate in China.This paper,from the perspective of real estate tax,estimates empirically the effect of the pilot real estate tax reform in Shanghai and Chongqing in 2011 on the fertility rate by Penalized Synthetic Control Method,which can provides some useful enlightenment for promoting the real estate tax reform and legislative process based by taking the fertility support into account.The results show that the housing tax policy in Shanghai has an obvious inhibitory effect on the fertility rate with continuity in time,while the property tax policy of Chongqing has a significant promoting effect on the fertility rate with marginal decline to a final relatively stable level.The impact of the property tax policy on the fertility rate in Shanghai and Chongqing is heterogeneous,which is mainly caused by the differences in the implementation rules of the property tax in the two regions.Based on the above conclusions,it is recommended that the future national property tax legislation should consider the regional differences in order to promote the population fertility,and the property tax policies should be in conjunction with other policies to enrich the fertility support policy system.
作者
王浩鑫
张庆
WANG Hao-xin;ZHANG Qing(College of Economics,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300382)
出处
《南方人口》
2024年第2期14-26,共13页
South China Population
基金
天津师范大学研究生科研创新项目重点项目资助,“征收房产税对人口出生率的影响研究--基于合成控制法的实证检验”(2023KYCX032Z)。。
