摘要
利用绝对值法、归一化法、相关系数法确定各旬气象条件对茎瘤芥产量影响的权重系数,从而得到不同权重系数确定方法的气候适宜度指数,基于气候适宜度指数与气象影响指数,建立茎瘤芥产量动态预报模型。结果表明,绝对值法与归一化法作为茎瘤芥气候适宜度指数权重系数确定方法,在实际应用中存在一定局限,相关系数法权重系数计算得到的气候适宜度指数能够更好地反映茎瘤芥产量受气象条件影响的变化情况。相关系数法作为气候适宜度指数权重系数确定方法的产量预报模型,在各起报时间模型均通过方程有效性检验,回代检验结果显示,不同起报时间的产量预报准确率平均值为92.0%,归一化均方根误差平均值为0.195,丰歉趋势准确率平均值为70.3%。外推检验显示,相关系数法作为气候适宜度指数权重系数确定方法的产量预报模型,除个别起报日期,其产量预报准确率均表现为90.0%以上的较高水平。丰歉趋势准确率总体较好。说明在利用气候适宜度指数进行产量预报时,相关系数法是一种适用性和准确性较高的权重系数确定方法。
In this study,methods of absolute value,normalization,and correlation were used to obtain the weight coefficients of the influence of meteorological conditions on the yield of Brassica juncea var.tumida.The dynamic yield prediction model was established based on the meteorological influence index and climatic suitability index with different weight coefficient determination methods.The results showed that the methods of absolute value and normalization as the weight coefficient of climate suitability index have limitation in practical application,while the climatic suitability index calculated by the weight coefficient of correlation method could better reflect the change of yield of Brassica juncea var.tumida affected by meteorological conditions.The dynamic prediction model by the correlation method as the weight coefficient of climate suitability index has passed the validity test.The average prediction accuracy,average root mean square error of homogenization and average accuracy of the bumper or poor harvest trend of back-substitution test results with different starting time was 92.0%,0.195,and 70.3%,respectively.Extrapolation test showed that the prediction accuracy of the dynamic prediction model by the correlation method as the weight coefficient of climate suitability index was greater than 90.0%,except for a few starting dates.The bumper or poor harvest trend was accurate.The dynamic prediction model by the correlation method as the weight coefficient of climate suitability index had high applicability and accuracy.
作者
武强
马家良
张悦
蔡国强
徐倩倩
Wu Qiang;Ma Jialiang;Zhang Yue;Cai Guoqiang;Xu Qianqian(CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy,Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Chongqing 401147,China;CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy,Chongqing Meteorological Information and Technology Support Center,Chongqing 401147,China;Tongliang Meteorological Station of Chongqing,Chongqing 402560,China;Hefei Meteorological Bureau,Hefei 230041,China)
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2024年第2期79-85,共7页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
基金
重庆市气象部门业务技术攻关项目(YWJSGG-202213)
重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项(cstc2020jscx-msxmX0111)
重庆市气象部门智慧气象技术创新团队项目(ZHCXTD-202016)
重庆市气象局科技计划项目(QNJJ-201703)。
关键词
产量预报
气候适宜度指数
绝对值法
归一化法
相关系数法
茎瘤芥
yield prediction
climatic suitability index
absolute value method
normalization method
correlation method
brassica juncea var.tumida
