摘要
目的:构建肩关节镜手术患者术后组织水肿预测模型,并验证该模型的预测效果。方法:选取2022年10月-2023年7月于滨州医学院附属医院行肩关节镜手术的203例患者作为研究对象,其中2022年10月-2023年5月的160例患者为建模组,2023年6-7月的43例患者为外部验证组。采用二元Logistic回归筛选变量,构建模型,采用Hosmer-Lemeshow判断模型的拟合优度,受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线下面积检验模型的预测效果,利用时段验证法进行外部验证。结果:建模组患者术后组织水肿发生率为58.1%(93/160),验证组为53.5%(23/43);最终进入预测模型的因子:年龄(OR=1.052)、体质量指数(OR=1.138)。模型内部验证:Hosmer-Lemeshow检验P=0.645,ROC曲线下面积为0.715,约登指数为0.355,灵敏度为0.624,特异度为0.731,实际应用的正确率为76.74%。结论:本研究构建的预测模型效果良好,可为临床预测肩关节镜手术患者术后组织水肿的发生情况提供参考。
Objective:To construct a prediction model of postoperative tissue edema in patients undergoing shoulder arthroscopic surgery,and verify the prediction effect of the model.Methods:A total of two hundred and three patients who underwent shoulder arthroscopic surgery in the Affiliated Hospital of Binzhou Medical College from October 2022 to July 2023 were selected as the study objects,and one hundred and sixty patients from October 2022 to May 2023 were selected as the model group.Forty-three patients from June to July 2023 were in the external validation group.Binary Logistic regression was used to screen variables,the model was constructed,Hosmer-Lemeshow was used to judge the goodness of fit of the model,the area under receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to test the prediction effect of the model,and the period validation method was used for external verification.Results:The incidence of postoperative tissue edema was 58.1%(93/160)in the model group and 53.5%(23/43)in the external validation group;the factors that finally entered the prediction model were age(OR=1.052)and body mass index(OR=1.138);internal verification of the model:Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.645,the area under ROC curve 0.715,the Yoden index 0.355,the sensitivity 0.624,the specificity 0.731,and the actual application accuracy 76.74%.Conclusion:The prediction model constructed in this study has a good effect,which can provide a reference for clinical prediction of postoperative tissue edema in patients with shoulder arthroscopic surgery.
作者
张震
于祉璇
杜新建
尚云英
Zhang Zhen;Yu Zhixuan;Du Xinjian;Shang Yunying(Department of Operating Room,the Affiliated Hospital of Binzhou Medical College,Binzhou 256603,Shandong Province,China)
出处
《中外医药研究》
2024年第3期39-41,共3页
JOURNAL OF CHINESE AND FOREIGN MEDICINE AND PHARMACY RESEARCH
关键词
肩关节镜
组织水肿
模型构建
Shoulder arthroscope
Tissue edema
Model construction
