摘要
为对人群疏散预期目标快速预测,分析预期目标与多重影响因素之间的关系,提出基于疏散仿真模拟和随机森林相结合的预测模型。首先,构建人群疏散三维模型;其次,分析影响疏散的关键因素;最后,基于随机森林构建预测模型,开展预测变量的重要性分析。研究结果表明:该方法能对预期目标进行快速预测,预测准确度达到94%;基于变量重要性分析发现,人员数量对疏散的影响显著,且小群体的存在对疏散也有重要影响。研究结果可为人群安全疏散评估提供一定参考。
In order to quickly predict the expected goals of crowd evacuation and analyze the relationship between the expected goals and various influencing factors,a prediction model based on the combination of evacuation simulation and random forest was proposed.Firstly,a three-dimensional model of crowd evacuation was constructed.Secondly,the key factors affecting evacuation were analyzed.Finally,a prediction model based on random forest was constructed,and the importance analysis of the prediction variables was carried out.The results show that this method can quickly predict the expected goals with a prediction accuracy of 94%.Based on the importance analysis of variables,it is found that the number of personnel has a significant impact on evacuation,and the presence of small groups also has significant influence on evacuation.The research results can provide some reference for the safety evacuation assessment of crowd.
作者
张贺丹
丁元春
刘祖文
ZHANG Hedan;DING Yuanchun;LIU Zuwen(Ganzhou Key Laboratory of Industrial Safety and Emergency Technology,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou Jiangxi 341000,China;School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou Jiangxi 341000,China;National-local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Water Engineering Safety and Efficient Utilization of Resources in Poyang Lake Watershed,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang Jiangxi 330099,China)
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期157-162,共6页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72164016)。
关键词
人群疏散
随机森林
影响因素
重要性分析
crowd evacuation
random forest
influencing factor
importance analysis
