摘要
“双循环”格局下适度进口已成为缓解国内饲料粮供需矛盾的现实选择。在有效利用国际饲料粮市场的同时,降低饲料粮进口的稳定性风险,既重要且必要。在对国内饲料粮供需形势精准判断的基础上,综合分析饲料粮进口的可获性与可供性,并采用香农熵指数法对饲料粮的进口来源稳定性进行评估。结果表明:国内饲料粮供需格局趋紧并呈现常态化发展趋势,供需缺口不断扩大,适度进口饲料粮是大势所需。总量上,世界饲料粮的供应潜力巨大;时点上,我国与国际饲料粮生产波动的相关性较弱。因此,利用国际市场弥补国内饲料粮的供需缺口是可行的。1992—2020年,我国饲料粮进口的稳定程度整体处于较低水平,其中,玉米、麦麸和大麦的变动幅度较大,大豆的波动幅度较小。在新一轮高水平开放格局下,亟须完善政策体系、优化进口结构、提高进口稳定性,构建“双循环”新发展格局下开放型的国家饲料粮安全保障体系。
Under the“dual circulation”development pattern,moderate import has become the inevitable choice to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic feed grain in China.Thus,it is both important and necessary to effectively utilize the international feed grain market and reduce the stability risk of feed grain import.Based on the accurate judgment of domestic feed supply and demand situation,the availability and supply of feed grain imports were comprehensively analyzed,and Shannon entropy index method was used to evaluate the stability of feed grain imports.The results showed that the supply and demand pattern of domestic feed grains in China became tighter and showed a normal development trend,and the supply and demand gap was constantly expanding.Moderate import of feed grains was the general demand.Furthermore,the world s feed grain supply potential is huge,and the correlation between China and the international feed grain production fluctuation is weak,so it is feasible to use the international market to make up the domestic feed grain supply and demand gap.Further analysis showed that the stability degree of feed grain import in China was at a low level on the whole from 1992 to 2020,among which the fluctuation range of corn,wheat bran and barley showed a larger fluctuation,while the soybean showed a smaller fluctuation.Under the new round of high-level opening-up,it is urgent to improve the policy system,optimize the import structure,and improve import stability,to build an open national feed grain security system under the new development pattern of“dual circulation”.
作者
崔宁波
王斯曼
范月圆
CUI Ningbo;WANG Siman;FAN Yueyuan(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)
出处
《浙江农业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期681-689,共9页
Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis
基金
国家社会科学基金(23BJY188)
黑龙江省自然科学基金(LH2020G001)。
关键词
“双循环”格局
饲料粮
进口稳定性
保障策略
“dual circulation”pattern
feed grain
import stability
safeguarding strategy
