摘要
本文手工收集整理2015-2021年专项债和新基建项目等数据,通过双重差分识别策略和双重差分空间杜宾模型,探讨新基建专项债对劳动力市场的就业效应及其空间外溢性。研究发现:(1)新基建专项债对就业具有乘数效应,不仅能够增加专项债指定投向领域3.49%的就业,还通过扩散效应带动非指定投向领域8.34%的地区就业;(2)与传统基建专项债不同,新基建专项债能够产生显著的行业和岗位替代效应,有助于优化劳动力市场的就业结构;(3)新基建专项债的就业结构效应具有正向溢出特征,表现为本地区高技能劳动力流入和低技能劳动力流出。本文对于促进劳动力市场格局转变、减少地区间摩擦性失业有政策参考价值。
Based on prefecture-level city panel data from 2005 to 2021,this article applies a differences-in-differences identification strategy and a differences-in-differences spatial Durbin model.It explores the employment effects of new infrastructure special bonds and spatial spillover.The study reveals the following findings:(1)New infrastructure special bonds generate multiplier effects on employment,not only increasing the employment level in the specified investment sectors by 3.49%,but also stimulating regional employment in non-specified investment sectors by 8.34%through diffusion effects.(2)Unlike traditional infrastructure special bonds,new infrastructure special bonds can generate significant industry and job substitution effects,helping to optimize the employment structure of the labor market.(3)The employment structure effects of new infrastructure special bonds exhibit positive spillover,as indicated by the inflow of high-skilled labor and the outflow of low-skilled labor in the local area.This article provides empirical evidence and reference suggestions for the transformation of the labor market pattern and the reduction of frictional unemployment under the impact of new infrastructure special bonds.
作者
刘楠楠
曾宇
Liu Nannan;Zeng Yu
出处
《世界经济》
北大核心
2024年第2期152-173,共22页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
四川省哲学社会科学重点项目“中国地方债的金融风险累积迭加效应与防控政策研究”(SC18A030)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“地方债风险治理与绿色经济发展的共振协同机制研究”(JBK2307005)的资助,。
关键词
新基建专项债
就业效应
空间外溢性
new infrastructure special bonds
employment effects
spatial spillover
