摘要
通过研究不同时期广西甘蔗产量灾损风险,以期为甘蔗种植防灾减灾和区域发展规划提供重要科学支撑。利用1961~2021年广西甘蔗统计产量,采用趋势产量分离方法、产量灾损风险指数构建方法和GIS空间分析方法,分析不同时期P1(1961~1980年)、P2(1981~2000年)和P3(2001~2021年)3个时段内平均减产率、减产率变异系数、不同减产率风险概率以及产量灾损风险指数的空间分布,并讨论不同时期气象灾害与产量灾损风险指数的关系。结果表明:①各时期平均减产率大小为P1>P2>P3,空间上P1时期桂东偏高,P2时期桂北偏高,P3时期全区大部为低减产率;②各时期减产率变异系数大小为P2>P3=P1,P2时期以河池为主的桂北地区偏高,P1和P3时期全区大部为中或低变异系数;③各时期不同减产率风险概率大小为P1>P2>P3,P1和P2时期空间上主要呈东西差异,P3时期全区空间差异较小;④各时期产量灾损风险指数(R)大小为P1>P2>P3,P1时期R大部偏高,P2时期R以河池为主的桂北地区偏高,P3时期大部地区处于低或较低产量灾损风险,并明显低于P1和P2时期。研究结果表明当前气候与生产技术背景下,甘蔗产量灾损风险降低,广西甘蔗生产朝较好方向发展,但仍需注意防范桂西和桂中干旱、桂北低温霜冻等农业气象灾害对甘蔗生产的影响。
This study aimed to investigate the risk of yield loss in sugarcane production in different periods in Guangxi and provide important scientific support for disaster prevention,reduction,and regional development planning in sugarcane cultivation.The statistical yield data of sugarcane in Guangxi from 1961 to 2021 were utilized.Trend yield separation method,yield loss risk index construction method,and GIS spatial analysis method were employed to analyze the spatial distribution of average yield reduction rate,coefficient of yield reduction rate variability,risk probability of different yield reduction rates,and yield loss risk index during three periods:P1(1961~1980),P2(1981~2000),and P3(2001~2021).The relationship between meteorological disasters in different periods and the yield loss risk index was also discussed.The results indicated that:①The average yield reduction rate in each period was P1>P2>P3,with higher rates in the eastern part during the P1 period and in the northern part during the P2 period,while the majority of the region experienced low yield reduction rates during the P3 period.②The coefficient of variation for yield reduction rates varied with P2>P3=P1,with higher variation in the northern region dominated by Hechi during the P2 period,while the majority of the region experienced moderate or low variation coefficients during the P1 and P3 periods.③The probability of different yield reduction rates in each period followed the order of P1>P2>P3,with spatial variations mainly observed in the east-west direction during the P1 and P2 periods,while the overall spatial differences were smaller during the P3 period.④The risk index of yield loss(R)during each period was in the order of P1>P2>P3,with higher values during the P1 period and higher values in the northern region dominated by Hechi during the P2 period,while the majority of the region experienced low or relatively low risk of yield loss during the P3 period.The risk of yield loss in the P3 period for sugarcane was significantly lower
作者
黄维
李莉
吴炫柯
李华实
邹颖俊
何芊姗
匡昭敏
HUANG Wei;LI Li;WU Xuanke;LI Huashi;ZOU Yingjun;HE Qianshan;KUANG Zhaomin(Liuzhou Meteorological Bureau/Liuzhou Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station,Liuzhou,Guangxi 545003;Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Nanning,Guangxi 530022;Chongzuo Meteorological Bureau,Chongzuo,Guangxi 532200;Guangxi Zhongqi Fengyun Disaster Prevention Technology Co.Ltd.,Nanning,Guangxi 530022)
出处
《甘蔗糖业》
2024年第1期34-45,共12页
Sugarcane and Canesugar
基金
广西科技重大专项“高效低损甘蔗机械化收获关键技术集成应用与示范”(桂科AA22117007-4)。
关键词
甘蔗
产量灾损
风险
农业气象灾害
Sugarcane
Yield loss
Risk
Agricultural meteorological disasters
