摘要
本文选取2013-2021年甘肃省张掖市五县一区的面板数据,采用耦合协调度模型及随机效应回归模型,分析张掖市农业产业与农业绿色发展系统的耦合协调关系及影响耦合协调关系的因素。研究表明:(1)在时序变化中耦合协调度呈逐渐下降趋势,整体处于初级协调且两极分化显著;(2)在空间演变过程中各区县区域异质性明显呈交替变化且差距较大;(3)人口集聚度、产业集聚度、资源效率、经济效益、农民增收因素对两个系统起正向促进作用,绿色农业因素起反向抑制作用。基于此,从进一步加强新型经营主体培育、转变生产方式、发挥产业外部性三个方面提出相关建议。
This paper selects the panel data of five counties and one district of Zhangye City,Gansu Province from 2013 to 2021,and uses the coupled coordination degree model and random effect regression model to analyze the coupling coordination relationship between agricultural industry and agricultural green development system in Zhangye City and the factors affecting the coupling coordination relationship.The study shows that:(1)The coupling coordination degree is gradually decreasing in the timing change,and the overall coordination is in the primary coordination and the polarization is significant.(2)In the process of spatial evolution,the regional heterogeneity of each district and county obviously changes alternately and the gap is large.(3)Population agglomeration degree,industrial agglomeration degree,resource efficiency,economic benefit and farmers'income increase factors play a positive role in promoting the two systems,and green agricultural factors play a reverse inhibitory role.Based on this,it proposes to further strengthen the cultivation of new business entities,change the production mode and give play to the industrial externalities.
作者
韦志鹏
陈秉谱
Zhipeng Wei;Bingpu Chen(College of Finance and Economics,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou,Gansu,730070,China)
关键词
农业产业集聚
农业绿色发展
耦合协调度模型
随机效应回归模型
Agricultural Industry Agglomeration
Agricultural Green Development
Coupled Coordination Model
Random Effect Regression Model
