摘要
实施自由贸易区提升战略、扩大面向全球的高标准自由贸易区网络是中国推动对外贸易高质量发展、建设更高水平开放型经济新体制的重要战略举措。基于此,利用1995—2021年CEPII-BACI数据库HS6位码层面的贸易数据,从双边贸易成本与产品比较优势视角出发,采用PSM-SDID方法分析了自由贸易协定对中国出口二元边际的影响。研究发现,自由贸易协定对中国出口二元边际有显著影响,抑制了出口拓展边际的增长,促进了出口集约边际的增长。事件研究结果表明,自由贸易协定对出口二元边际的影响存在明显的滞后效应。机制分析结果表明,自由贸易协定通过比较优势的提升促进国家核心优势产品的出口,从而促进了出口集约边际的增长,抑制了出口拓展边际的增长;自由贸易协定通过贸易成本的降低促进了出口集约边际的增长。异质性分析结果表明,自由贸易协定对不同形式和类别产品出口二元边际的影响存在异质性。研究结论能为中国进一步签订深度贸易协定、促进对外贸易高质量发展提供政策参考。
China must prioritize the upgrading and expansion of its high-standard free trade zones to effectively en⁃gage with the global trade network and construct a new open economic system of high level.Utilizing data from CEPII and BACI HS6,spanning 209 countries from 1995 to 2021,this study evaluates the impact of free trade agreements(FTAs)on China’s export intensive and extensive margins.We incorporate trade costs and comparative advantage per⁃spectives,applying the PSM-SDID method.Baseline results indicate that FTAs substantially influence China’s dual export margins,leading to a reduction in the extensive margin and a boost in the intensive margin.The event study un⁃covers a lagged effect of FTAs on these export margins.Mechanism analyses suggest that FTAs enhance the export of core products by ameliorating product quality.This uplift in quality subsequently diminishes the extensive margin and augments the intensive margin.Concurrently,FTAs optimize dual export margins by curtailing bilateral trade costs.Fur⁃ther analysis reveals that FTA impacts vary among different product categories.Overall,this study offers pivotal policy guidance for China as it contemplates deep trade agreement engagements and seeks to foster high-quality trade progres⁃sion.
作者
侯俊军
庞卫建
赵传敏
HOU Jun-jun;PANG Wei-jian;ZHAO Chuan-min
出处
《吉林大学社会科学学报》
北大核心
2024年第2期170-185,239,240,共18页
Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(21FJLB009)
中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2023M743896)。
