摘要
南水北调工程会引起所涉区域极端气候发生变化,同时极端气候事件对调水工程运行也存在影响。研究以1960—2020年气象观测数据为基础构建极端气象要素指标体系,采用变化范围法(RVA)与集对分析法(SPA)对南水北调影响区极端气象要素的改变程度进行量化计算,揭示了经济发展、气候变化与南水北调工程影响下区域极端气象要素的演变规律。结果表明:在经济发展与气候变化影响下,1960—2020年南水北调影响区极端气象要素指标综合改变度总体为上升趋势,并出现了明显的区域差异性,中线地区极端气候改变度显著大于东线,而两线水源区变化程度低于输水区和受水区;调水前后对比分析表明,工程调水对中线的影响大于东线,且受水区极端气象要素变化程度更为明显;对极端气象要素分析发现,极端蒸发受气候变化与经济发展影响显著,极端气温受调水工程影响变化较大,极端降水受外界扰动变化不明显。
The South-to-North Water Diversion Project(SNWDP)causes changes in the extreme climate of the area involved,and in turn the extreme climatic events will also impact the operation of the water diversion project.The study constructs an extreme meteorological element index system based on the meteorological observation data from 1960 to 2020.It quantifies the change degree of extreme meteorological elements in the area affected by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project using the range of variability approach(RVA)and the set-pair analysis(SPA)method,which reveals the evolution patterns of regional extreme meteorological elements under the impacts of economic development,climate change and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.The results show that under the influence of economic development and climate change,the comprehensive change degree of extreme meteorological element indices in the South-to-North Water Diversion influence area from 1960 to 2020 exhibited an upward trend in a whole with obvious regional differences.The change degree of extreme climate in the central line area was significantly larger than that in the eastern line area,while the changes in water source area of the two lines were smaller compared with those in the transmission area and the receiving area.A comparative analysis before and after the water diversion shows that the impact of the project on the central line was greater than that on the eastern line,and the changes of extreme meteorological elements in the receiving area were more significant.Analysis of extreme meteorological elements reveals that extreme evaporation was significantly affected by climate change and economic development,extreme temperature was greatly affected by the impact of the water diversion project,whereas the extreme precipitation was not sensitive to the external perturbations.
作者
张金萍
段德润
李杜白
李学淳
苏少辉
ZHANG Jinping;DUAN Derun;LI Dubai;LI Xuechun;SU Shaohui(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Institute for Ecological Protection&Regional Coordinated Development,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期1-8,共8页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200205)
2021年度河南省面上基金项目(212300410404)
灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2021LASW-A15)
2022年度“教授团队助力企业创新驱动发展专项”(JSZLQY2022076)。
关键词
极端气象要素
变化范围法
集对分析法
综合改变度
南水北调工程
extreme meteorological element
range of variability approach(RVA)
set-pair analysis(SPA)
comprehensive change degree
the South-to-North Water Diversion Project
