摘要
【目的】为了科学评估粮食安全体系,保障粮食安全。【方法】采用SEM结构方程测算了1978—2022年中国粮食的发展水平、影响因素以及影响因素间的关系,在粮食安全总指数的基础上对未来10年的粮食安全进行预测。【结果】结果表明:经济因素和生产因素对粮食安全具有显著的促进作用,生产因素和环境因素对经济因素具有推动作用。1978—2010年粮食安全指数呈负值,2011—2021年转为正值,且2021年指数值最高。【结论】未来粮食安全状态持续上升,各影响因素发展存在差异,需要针对不同的影响因素,采取针对性的措施,以实现粮食安全状态的全面提升。
[Objective]To evaluate food security system scientifically and ensure food security.[Methods]The structural equation of SEM was used to estimate the level of grain development in China from 1978 to 2022,the influencing factors and the relationship among the influencing factors,and the food security in the next 10 years was predicted based on the total index of food security.[Results]The results showed that economic factors and production factors had a significant role in promoting food security,and production factors and environmental factors had a significant role in promoting economic factors.The food security index was negative from 1978 to 2010,and turned positive from^(2)011 to 2021,with the highest index value in 2021.[Conclusion]The state of food security continues to rise in the future,and there are differences in the development of various influencing factors.It is necessary to take targeted measures according to different influencing factors to realize the overall improvement of food security.
作者
袁世一
李干琼
YUAN Shiyi;LI Ganqiong(Institute of Agricultural Information,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《北京农学院学报》
2024年第1期58-63,共6页
Journal of Beijing University of Agriculture
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(62103418)
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务费(JBYW-AII-2023-07)。
关键词
粮食安全
影响因素
因子分析
SEM
灰色预测
food security
influencing factors
factor analysis
SEM
grey prediction
