摘要
当前全球气候变化对于农业可持续发展产生了严峻的挑战,而气候智能型农业(Climate-Smart Agriculture,简称CSA)的理念与方法的实施有助于保障我国农业生产的稳定性与可持续性。本研究以中国九大农业区为研究对象,选取2010—2021年省级面板数据,运用熵权法、平衡发展指数模型、障碍度模型,对中国各农业区的气候智能型农业发展指数(CSA-DI)和气候智能型农业平衡发展指数(CSA-BDI)、气候智能型农业发展障碍因素进行了实证研究。结果显示:2010—2021年,大部分农业区的CSA-DI和CSA-BDI均呈现提升趋势,其中四川盆地及周边地区、东北平原区、黄淮海平原区、云贵高原区表现尤为显著。尽管重点产区在系统性、整体性和协同性方面取得了初步成效,但在粮食安全、气候变化适应性和减缓农业碳排放等方面仍存在提升的空间。部分农业区则面临对资源禀赋过于依赖、经济发展和农业发展难以协同等问题。根据评价结果本研究提出了一系列政策建议,包括匹配模块化发展方案、划定资源保护红线、进行CSA技术归纳与应用、推动“农林牧融合”综合试点等。这些建议旨在促进各地区气候智能型农业的发展,实现成果共享与责任共担。
Practicing the concept and methodology of Climate-Smart Agriculture(CSA)contributes to safeguarding the stability and sustainability of agricultural production in China amidst the challenges of climate change.This research focuses on the nine major agricultural regions in China,utilizing provincial panel data from 2010 to 2021.The study employs entropy weighting,the balanced development index model,and the obstacle degree model to empirically investigate the Climate-Smart Agriculture Development Index(CSA-DI),the Balanced Development Index of Climate-Smart Agriculture(CSA-BDI),and the obstacles to CSA development in each region.The results showed that from 2010 to 2021,the CSA-DI and CSA-BDI exhibit an overall upward trajectory,particularly notable in the Sichuan Basin and its surrounding areas,the Northeast Plain,the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.Despite the positive strides in the systematic,holistic,and synergistic principles of key production areas,opportunities for enhancement persist in areas such as food security,adaptability,and the mitigation of agricultural carbon emissions.Certain agricultural regions face challenges,including overdependence on resource endowments and difficulties in harmonizing economic and agricultural development.Based on the evaluation results,this study suggests a number of policy changes,such as aligning with modular development plans,setting boundaries to protect resources,using CSA technologies in a planned way,and moving forward with full trials of the“integration of agriculture,forestry,and animal husbandry”.These recommendations aim to foster the development of CSA in different regions,facilitating the sharing of achievements and shared responsibility for sustainable outcomes.
作者
仝昊天
孙聪
夏恩君
黄洁萍
TONG Hao-tian;SUN Cong;XIA En-jun;HUANG Jie-ping(School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期1093-1102,共10页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72274016)。
关键词
气候智能型农业
粮食安全
九大农业区
熵权法
发展指数
平衡发展指数
障碍因素
Climate-Smart Agriculture
food security
nine agricultural regions
Entropy Weight Method
development index
balanced development index
constraint factors
