摘要
空间资产是国家的重要战略资产,有效控制其所面临的各类风险将有助于推动空间资产效益最大化,提高对国家安全与发展的贡献率,推动航天强国建设。本文首先讨论了空间资产的定义与内涵,认为从狭义来讲空间资产主要包含我国所有的在轨航天器,广义来讲还包括与其相关的一些关联资产和无形资产。其次,从多个维度梳理了空间资产的潜在风险源,并划分为技术、军事和管理三大类风险,其中技术类风险包括碰撞解体、爆炸解体、载荷故障、凯斯勒效应等;军事风险包括将航天器作为武器或武器平台等风险;管理风险主要指管理制度不匹配、无形资产流失等;之后针对技术类风险初步讨论了空间资产风险量化评估方法,建立空间资产价值的量化评估模型,并简要分析可能的风险控制方法。最后,面向空间资产风险事件的处置应对问题,提出初步的风险事件分级模型及处置应对需重点考虑的几个方面,如体制机制的建立、应对预案的制定、责任主体的划分、处置行动的落实与监督等。
Space assets are crucial resources for a nation,and effectively managing the various risks associated with them will help maximize their benefits,enhance their contribution to national modernization and security,and improve the strength of the space industry.First,this study clarifies the definition and scope of space assets.In a narrow sense,space assets encompass all spacecraft in orbit.Broadly speaking,space assets also comprise related physical and intangible assets.Second,potential risk sources are identified from multiple dimensions and categorized into technical risks(such as collision disintegration,explosive disintegration,and load failure),military risks(including the use of spacecraft as weapons or weapon platforms),and management risks(referring mainly to mismatches in management systems,leading to loss of intangible assets).Subsequently,this study explores a quantitative assessment method for the technical risks,establishes a model for quantifying space asset values,and briefly analyzes possible risk control methods.Furthermore,a preliminary classification model for risk events is proposed along with several considerations including establishment of systems and mechanisms,formulation of response plans,responsibility allocation,and implementation and supervision of disposal actions.
作者
张东江
高智杰
杨志涛
张馨文
蓝鼎
Zhang Dongjiang;Gao Zhijie;Yang Zhitao;Zhang Xinwen;Lan Ding(School of Humanities and Social Sciences,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of National Security and Development Studies,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;National Astronomical Observatories,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;School of Computer Science and Technology,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Mechanics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《中国工程科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期239-250,共12页
Strategic Study of CAE
基金
中国工程院咨询项目“新时代我国空间资产管理效益、风险控制与可持续发展研究”(2022-HZ-17)。
关键词
空间资产
风险评估
价值模型
风险控制
风险分级
space assets
risk assessment
value model
risk control
risk classification
