摘要
为了实现碳减排目标和碳中和愿景,以中国30个省份(除港澳台、西藏)2012—2019年数据为基础,实证分析产业结构升级对碳排放强度的影响。以科技创新为门槛变量,运用Hansen面板门槛回归方法,研究产业结构升级对碳排放强度的非线性影响。结果表明:产业结构升级对碳排放有显著的抑制作用;从全国整体分析以及对南方和北方分别研究结果看,产业结构升级都会对碳排放强度起到抑制作用,相比较而言,北方地区产业结构升级对碳排放的影响系数小于南方地区;在科技创新的作用下,产业结构升级对碳排放强度既存在促进作用也存在抑制作用,只有当科技创新水平高于某一特定门槛值时,产业结构升级才会对碳排放强度表现为抑制作用。
In order to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction and the vision of carbon neutrality,based on the data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China(except Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet)from 2012 to 2019,the impact of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emission intensity is empirically analyzed.With scientific and technological innovation as the threshold variable,Hansen panel threshold regression method is used to study the nonlinear impact of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emission intensity.The results show that:the upgrading of industrial structure has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions;from the overall analysis of the whole country and the research results of the South and the North respectively,the upgrading of industrial structure has a restraining effect on the intensity of carbon emissions,but in comparison,the influence coefficient of the upgrading of industrial structure in the North on carbon emissions is smaller than that in the South;under the effect of scientific and technological innovation,the upgrading of industrial structure can either promote or inhibit the intensity of carbon emissions,only when the level of scientific and technological innovation is higher than a certain threshold value,can the upgrading of industrial structure inhibit the intensity of carbon.
作者
刘雷
杨丽丽
LIU Lei;YANG Lili(School of Management,Shenyang University of Technology,Shenyang,Liaoning 110870,China)
出处
《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2024年第1期31-39,共9页
Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(19BGL045)
辽宁省教育厅项目(LJKR0076)
沈阳市社会科学立项课题(SYSK2022-JD-02)
沈阳市哲学社会科学规划课题(SY202237Y)。
关键词
碳中和产业结构升级
碳排放强度
科技创新
门槛回归
carbon neutrality
industrial structure upgrading
carbon emission intensity
scientific and technological innovation
threshold regression
