摘要
感潮地区内涝灾害的发生同时受涝区暴雨与承泄区潮位2个致灾因子影响,在雨潮遭遇风险分析过程中,不同的选样方法将对分析结果造成影响。以中(山)珠(海)联围感潮地区为例,基于年最值选样法与超阈值选样法并结合Copula函数,对研究区雨潮遭遇风险进行分析,结果表明:①超阈值1 d降雨样本序列具有更大的样本容量,其包含更多降雨量较大的暴雨事件,同时这些较大的暴雨事件往往会与高潮位相遭遇;②由于超阈值样本序列包含了更多有效的雨潮事件数据信息,从防洪排涝规划设计的角度考虑,采用超阈值选样法得到的雨潮边缘分布更为安全,且具有更高的准确性;③基于超阈值选样法得到的雨潮联合分布具有更高的拟合优度,同时在年最值样本序列遗漏掉一些较大的暴雨信息的情况下,由超阈值样本序列计算得到的非期望雨潮组合事件发生的概率要较大一些。
Waterlogging disaster in tide-affected area usually occurs under the influence of rainstorm and tide level.In the process of risk analysis of rainstorm and tide level,different sample methods will affect the risk probability results.Taking Zhong-Zhu union catchment as an example,based on annual maximum series sampling method and peak over threshold sampling method combined with Copula function,the risk analysis results indicate that:①Sample data obtained based on peak over threshold sampling method has a larger sample size,which contains more rainstorm events than sample data obtained based on annual maximum series sampling method,and these rainstorm events tend to encounter high tide;②On the basis of containing more effective sample information,the frequency analysis results obtained by peak over threshold sampling method are more accurate and with much more security from the perspective of waterlogged drainage;③The joint distribution of rainstorm and tide based on peak over threshold sampling method showed a better fitting degree,and the probability of encountering unexpected events is larger as a result of annual maximal series sampling method omitted some effective sample information.
作者
王尚伟
刘曾美
WANG Shangwei;LIU Zengmei(Guangdong Hydropower Planning&Design Institute Company Limited,Guangzhou 510635,China;Department of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2024年第2期105-115,共11页
Pearl River
基金
广东省水利科技创新项目(2016-27)。
关键词
雨潮遭遇
风险分析
年最值选样
超阈值选样
COPULA函数
中珠联围
encounter of rainstorm and tide
risk analysis
annual maximal series sampling method
peak over threshold sampling method
Copula function
Zhong-Zhu union catchment
