摘要
基于2005—2018年我国25个省(区、市)面板数据,考察作物生长期内积温和降水量对农药投入的影响。基准回归结果显示,气候因素会显著影响农药投入,作物生长期积温和降水量对农药投入具有显著的正向作用,并且这两者的协同作用也显著为正。异质性分析表明,北方地区和高产量地区的农药投入对气候因素更为敏感,并且影响效果也更大。农户受教育水平提高、单位面积劳动力投入减少、地区受灾率增加会提高气候变化对农药投入的正向作用。因此,在制定农药减量政策时应关注气候变化的影响,建立农业气候预警机制,完善农业保险制度,通过有效的风险管理降低农户过量施用农药的潜在动力。
Based on panel data from 25 provinces(regions,cities)in China from 2005 to 2018,this study investigated the effects of accumulated temperature and precipitation during crop growth on pesticide inputs.The baseline regression results showed that climate factors had a significant impact on pesticide input.Both accumulated temperature and precipitation during the crop growth period had a significantly positive effect on pesticide input,and their synergistic effect was also significant.Heterogeneity analysis showed that pesticide use in northern and high-yield regions was more sensitive to climate factors,with a greater impact.Farmers’education level increased,labor per acre decreased,and regional disaster rates increased,the promoting effect of climate change on pesticide use became more pronounced.Therefore,when formulating pesticide reduction policies,we should pay attention to the impact of climate change,establish an early warning mechanism for agricultural climate,improve the agricultural insurance system,and reduce the potential motivation of farmers to over-apply pesticides through effective risk management.
作者
杨泳冰
吴培南
郑微微
YANG Yong-bing;WU Pei-nan;ZHENG Wei-wei(School of Economics,Nanjing University of Finance&Economics,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210023;School of Economics,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210014)
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2024年第4期205-209,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目(2022SJYB0288)
江苏省高等学校基础科学(自然科学)研究面上项目(22KJB630001)。
关键词
气候变化
农业生产
农药投入
Climate change
Agricultural production
Pesticide input
