摘要
针对现有信息传播模型忽略了用户主观能动性和社交网络动态性的问题,提出异构网络中考虑用户能动性和流动性的SCBRD(Susceptible-Commented-Believed-Recovered-Defensed)舆情传播模型。首先,利用下一代矩阵方法计算基本再生数,并运用Lyapunov稳定性定理和庞特里亚金原理分析了系统的动力学和最优控制问题。然后,基于BA(Barabási-Albert)无标度网络进行仿真分析以确定影响舆情传播的显著因素,结果表明,用户的好奇心理、转发行为和进入率在信息扩散中起着主导作用,并且系统存在最优控制解。最后,依据实际数据验证模型的合理性。与SCIR(Susceptible-inCubation-Infective-Refractory)模型相比,SCBRD模型的拟合优度提高了27.40%,预测的均方根误差(RMSE)减小了39.02%。因此,该模型能够适应信息传播复杂的变化形势,为官方的舆情监管提供较好的指导。
To address the issue of existing information diffusion models overlooking user subjectivity and social network dynamics,an SCBRD(Susceptible-Commented-Believed-Recovered-Defensed)opinion propagation model that considers user initiative and mobility in heterogeneous networks was proposed.Firstly,the basic reproduction number was determined using the next-generation matrix method,and the system’s dynamics and optimal control were investigated by applying Lyapunov’s stability theorem and Pontryagin’s principle.Then,a simulation analysis was performed based on BA(Barabási-Albert)scale-free network to identify the significant factors affecting the opinion propagation.The results reveal that users’curiosity,forwarding behavior,and admission rate play dominant roles in information diffusion and the system has an optimal control solution.Finally,the model’s rationality was validated based on actual data.Compared to the SCIR(Susceptible-inCubation-Infective-Refractory)model,the SCBRD model improves fitting accuracy by 27.40%and reduces the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of prediction by 39.02%.Therefore,the proposed model can adapt to the complex and changing circumstances of information diffusion and provide better guidance for official public opinion regulation.
作者
马源源
解蕾蕾
董南
刘娜
MA Yuanyuan;XIE Leilei;DONG Nan;LIU Na(College of Business Administration,Northeastern University,Shenyang Liaoning 110819,China;College of Economics,Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004,China;College of Management,Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004,China)
出处
《计算机应用》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期619-627,共9页
journal of Computer Applications
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71701036)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(N2123022)。
关键词
舆情传播模型
平均场方程
最优控制
新浪微博
参数估计
opinion propagation model
mean-field equation
optimal control
Sina Weibo
parameter estimation
