摘要
从20世纪70年代初期开始的计划生育,使得中国妇女生育率快速下降,也预示着人口老龄化速度将在一定阶段明显加快。本文回顾了中国人口出生率和死亡率的下降过程,描述了以往不同时间点中国人口年龄结构的变化,利用2020年第七次全国人口普查数据分析了老年人口的状况和特点,并对未来50年中国人口和老龄化进程进行了预测。研究发现:2022—2036年是老年人口增长最快的时期,2037—2051年进入中速增长阶段,2052—2063年老年人口增长速度迅速递减,从2056年开始老年人口出现负增长,老年人口数量有所减少。从2068年开始到未来的一段时间老年人口增长速度会在0附近波动,而且会长期保持下去。尽管老年人口出现负增长,但是老年人口所占比例仍然会持续上升,老龄化进程将大幅度减缓,这会在很大程度上缓解老龄化和老龄问题带来的压力。总之,未来30年是积极应对人口老龄化、解决老龄问题的关键时期。然而,与“30后”“40后”父母相比,“50后”“60后”“70后”父母现有子女数大幅度减少,家庭养老将难以为继,未来社会养老将面临巨大压力。
The Family Planning Program implemented in China since the early of 1970s promoted the fast decline of fertility,which could herald an accelerated ageing in a given period.This article reviews the former process of decline in birth and death rates,portrays the changes of age structure in China,based on the 2020 census data,analyze the status and characteristics of the aged,and make a population and ageing projection for the coming 50 years.It is found that it would be the fast period in the increase of aged population from 2022 to 2036,the moderate increase from 2037 to 2051,and quickly decline in the rate of increase in the number of aged from 2050 to 2063.Negative increase would occur in 2056,and total number of aged would start decreasing.Since 2068,the increase rate of aged population would be around zero,and be kept in the future.Even though the increase rate would reach negative,the proportion of aged would still increase,but the progression of ageing would be significantly slowing down.Thus,the pressure on ageing and relevant problems would be greatly relieved since then.In summary,it would be the critical stage in actively addressing population ageing and ageing problems in China in the coming 30 years.However,compared with the people born in 1930s and 40s,the average number of lived children of the parents born in 1950s,60s and 70s decreased substantially,which would lead unavailable in the family care,and accordingly,the social care would confront huge challenge in the future.
出处
《社会政策研究》
2024年第1期47-63,133,共18页
Social Policy Research
关键词
人口老龄化
老龄问题
人口预测
增长速度
家庭养老
Population ageing
Ageing problems
Population projection
Increase rate
Family care
