摘要
本文研究引入心理账户理论探讨社会养老保险如何影响农户农地转出决策,并利用2019年中国农村家庭追踪调查数据,通过区分缴费型与非缴费型两种养老金收入,实证研究不同类型的农村社会养老保险方案对农地转出的影响。研究结果表明,领取缴费型养老金对农户的农地转出没有显著影响,而领取非缴费型养老金会显著提高农户的农地转出概率,但对农地转出规模没有显著影响。本文基于心理账户理论的机制分析发现,相比于缴费型养老金带来的收入效应,非缴费型养老金能通过稳定农户的未来养老收入预期,使较低的养老保障水平对农地转出决策产生显著影响。本文研究认为,社会养老保险对农地养老功能的替代关系并不成立,只有“临时的”非缴费型养老保险方案可以影响农户的农地转出决策。本文既是对制度性养老与农地养老是否存在替代关系的再检验,也是基于心理账户理论视角对社会养老保险影响农地转出决策的新分析。
In this study,we introduce the mental accounting theory to analyze the impact of social pensions on farmland out-transfers,and by distinguishing between contributory and noncontributory pensions with the 2019 CRHPS data,we empirically investigate the impacts of different schemes of social pensions on farmland out-transfers.Our results show that the contributory pension scheme does not have any significant infuence on the decision to transfer out farmland.While receiving noncontributory pensions significantly increases the probability of farmland out-transfers,it does not have a significant impact on the scale of farmland transferred out.Based on the mechanism analysis of mental accounting theory,comparing with the income effect of contributory pensions,by stabilizing farmers'expectations of future pension,a relatively low pension can have a significant impact on the decision of transferring out farmland.The conclusion of our study is that the substitutional relationship between social pensions and the pension function of farmland is not valid,and only the temporary noncontributory pension scheme affects the decision of transferring out farmland.This paper is not only a reexam of the debate on whether there exists a substitutional relationship between institutional pensions and farmland as pensions,but also a new analysis of the influence of social pensions on farmers'decision of transferring out farmland based on the mental accounting theory.
作者
洪甘霖
赵宗胤
钱文荣
HONG Ganlin;ZHAO Zongyin;QIAN Wenrong
出处
《中国农村经济》
北大核心
2023年第12期65-84,共20页
Chinese Rural Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“城乡区域平衡发展理念下的土地制度综合改革研究”(编号:19ZDA088)
国家留学基金国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目“Impact of the Social Pension Insurance Level on the Effective Allocation of Agricultural Land Resources”(编号:202106320114)的资助。
关键词
养老保险
农地转出
心理账户
模糊断点回归
Pensions
Farmland Out-Transfers
Mental Accounting
Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design
