摘要
为给出含光伏配电网的低压直流断路可靠性分布,构建了断路器寿命预测的新陈代谢灰色模型,实现了小样本数据下光伏低压直流断路器寿命的准确预测,预测结果的平均相对误差均小于2%。进而以灰色预测结果为基础,利用最大似然估计方法给出了光伏低压直流断路器可靠性的两参数威布尔拟合结果,并与实测寿命数据的威布尔分布进行了对比,结果表明威布尔分布的尺寸参数和形状参数的误差分别为0.7%和2.17%,论证了灰色算法和威布尔分布在光伏低压直流断路器可靠性分析中的有效性。
To give the reliability distribution of low-voltage DC circuit breaker with photovoltaic distribution network,a metabolic grey model for the life prediction of circuit breaker is constructed,and the accurate prediction of the life of photovoltaic low-voltage DC circuit breaker under small sample data is realized.The average relative error of the prediction results is less than 2%.Then,based on the grey prediction results,the two parameter Weibull fitting results of PV low-voltage DC circuit breaker reliability are given by using the maximum likelihood estimation method,and compared with the Weibull distribution of the measured life data.The results show that the errors of the size parameters and shape parameters of the Weibull distribution are 0.7%and 2.17%,which can demonstrate the effectiveness of the grey algorithm and Weibull distribution in the reliability analysis of PV low-voltage DC circuit breaker.
作者
汤旭日
赵殿鑫
TANG Xuri;ZHAO Dianxin(School of Electrical and Control Engineering,Heilongjiang University of Science and Technology,Harbin 150022,China)
出处
《电器与能效管理技术》
2024年第1期13-17,共5页
Electrical & Energy Management Technology
关键词
光伏
断路器
可靠性
寿命
灰色模型
威布尔分布
photovoltaic
circuit breaker
reliability
lifetime
grey model
Weibull distribution
