摘要
高速铁路线下工程沉降监测与控制,是实现铁路轨道的高平顺性施工和高稳定性运营的基础。桥梁工程占我国高铁总里程的50%以上,开展桥墩沉降监测和预报,对高速铁路工程的顺利施工和高速铁路网运营安全意义重大。为建立符合高铁桥墩沉降变形实际的沉降预测模型,基于自回归(AR)模型和线性假设理论,考虑模型变量误差对AR模型建模的影响,推导了顾及模型变量误差的高铁桥墩沉降预测自回归EIV模型建模及解算方法,推演了基于线性假设理论的最佳高铁桥墩沉降预测模型选择方法,在此基础上设计了一种基于自回归EIV模型的高铁桥墩沉降预测方法。研究结果表明:采用该方法建立的沉降预测模型,能够客观、准确地对高铁桥墩的沉降变形趋势作出预测,进而可为施工建设和运营维护决策的制定提供科学依据。
The settlement monitoring and control of high-speed railway(HSR)underline engineering is the basis of realizing the high smoothness construction and high stability operation of railway track.Bridge engineering accounts for more than 50%of the total mileage in the HSR projects that has been established in China.Therefor,it is of great significance for the smooth construction of HSR project and the operation safety of HSR network to carry out settlement monitoring and prediction,so as to realize the rapid and accurate judgment of settlement deformation trend.In order to establish a settlement prediction model that conforms to the actual settlement deformation of HSR piers,the relevant research was carried out based on the autoregressive(AR)model and linear hypothesis theory.Firstly,on the basis of classical AR model,combined with the actual situation of modeling,considering the influence of model variable errors on AR model modeling,the modeling and solution method of autoregressive EIV model for HSR pier settlement prediction considering the model variable errors was derived.Then,the optimum prediction model selection method for HSR pier settlement based on linear hypothesis theory was deduced.Finally,a prediction method of HSR pier settlement based on autoregressive EIV model was designed.The research results show that,the algorithm proposed can be used to establish the optimum settlement prediction model that conforms to the actual settlement deformation of HSR pier,which can objectively and accurately predict the settlement deformation trend of HSR pier,and provide a scientific basis for the construction and operation decision-making.
作者
王鹏
WANG Peng(China Railway Design Corporation,Engineer,Tianjin 300308,China)
出处
《铁道勘察》
2024年第1期33-38,共6页
Railway Investigation and Surveying
基金
中国铁路设计集团有限公司科技开发计划重点课题(2021A240504)。
关键词
高速铁路
线性假设法
桥墩沉降
自回归EIV模型
模型优选
high-speed railway
linear hypothesis method
pier settlement
autoregressive EIV model
model optimization
