摘要
青藏高原湖泊受人为影响小,是揭示气候变化与区域响应的重要信息载体。为了准确地揭示青海湖水面面积的变化规律,并分析影响变化规律的主要因素,文章采用曼-肯德尔检验(Mann Kendall tests,M-K tests)、一元线性回归和小波分析法解析1961-2021年青海湖水面面积及其气温、降水量、日照时数和风速等气象要素的变化趋势和周期性变化规律,并采用相关性分析方法分析两个要素之间的相关关系。1961-2021年青海湖水面面积整体变化表现为先萎缩后扩张两个阶段,气温升高、蒸发量增大、径流量减少以及风速较大等共同因素导致1961-2004年水面面积以0.14 km^(2)/10 a的速率显著减小。在全球变暖的大背景下,高原季风增强、气候趋于暖湿,引起2004年以后水面面积以0.05 km^(2)/10 a的速率增加,且呈持续增加趋势。
The lakes in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau are important carriers of information for researching climate change and regional response,as they are minimally impacted by human activities.To accurately reveal the changing trend of the surface area of Qinghai Lake and analyze the main factors influencing its variation,Mann-Kendall tests,one-dimensional linear regression,and wavelet analysis are employed to analyze the trends and periodic changes of the surface area of Qinghai Lake as well as meteorological factors such as temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration,and wind speed from 1961 to 2021.Finally,the correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationship between these factors.The overall change in the surface area of Qinghai Lake from 1961 to 2021 showed two phases,shrinking first and then expanding.A combination of temperature rise,increased evaporation,reduced runoff,and strong winds,all contributed to a significant decrease in the surface area of Qinghai Lake by 0.14 km^(2)/10a from 1961 to 2004.Against the background of global warming,an enhanced plateau monsoon and a warming and humidifying climate are causing the surface area of the lake to increase at a rate of 0.05 km^(2)/10a since 2004,and this trend is expected to continue.
作者
徐立农
杨英莲
武静
陈辉
Xu Linong;Yang Yingian;Wu Jing;Chen Hui(Gonghe County Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province,Gonghe 813000,China;Qinghai Meteorological Observatory,Xining 810001,China;Ecological environment monitoring station ofHainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Qinghai Province,Gonghe 813000,China;Guide County Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai Province,Guide 811700,China)
出处
《青海科技》
2023年第6期126-133,共8页
Qinghai Science and Technology
基金
青海省气象局面上科研项目(QXMS2023-12)。
