摘要
利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2011年、2013年、2015年和2017年的数据,基于适度负债视角,构建非平衡面板模型,实证研究了房价变动对家庭消费的影响。研究发现:房价对家庭消费存在显著影响,且二者间的关系呈倒U型。随着房价升高,其对家庭消费的财富效应逐渐转变为挤出效应。而适度负债在房价变动与家庭消费的传导间起调节作用,当家庭利用适度债务杠杆时,房价变动对家庭消费的倒U型曲线拐点处于家庭消费的更高位置,这有利于净资产较高的家庭通过适度负债提高其边际消费倾向。基于此,政府应调控房价回归合理区间,充分发挥财富效应,对住房调控“因城施策”,以遏制房地产市场过度投机,鼓励居民合理利用适度负债,倡导“量入为出”。
Based on a moderate debt perspective,an unbalanced panel model has been constructed for an empirical study on the impact of house price changes on household consumption by using data from the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2011,2013,2015,and 2017.Research has found that housing prices exert a significant impact on household consumption,with an inverted U-shape shown for the relationship between the two.As housing price rises,its wealth effect on household consumption gradually shifts to a crowding-out effect.Moderate debt plays a moderating role in the transmission between changes in house prices and household consumption.When households make a utilization of the moderate debt leverage,the inflection point of the inverted U-shaped curve of housing price changes on household consumption remains at a higher position,which is beneficial for households with higher net assets to increase their marginal propensity to consume through moderate debts.Based on this,it is advisable that the government should regulate housing prices to return to a reasonable range,give full play to the wealth effect,and implement city-specific policies to curb excessive speculation in the real estate market,encourage residents to make reasonable use of moderate debts,and advocate for a living mode“within means”.
作者
钱海鹰
吴义东
QIAN Haiying;WU Yidong(Business School,Anhui University of Technology,Ma’anshan Anhui 243000,China)
出处
《湖南工业大学学报》
2024年第2期85-94,共10页
Journal of Hunan University of Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助面上项目(71974003)
安徽省哲学社会科学规划基金资助重点项目(AHSKZ2017D05)。
关键词
房价变动
家庭消费
适度负债
调节效应
housing price change
household consumption
moderate debt
moderating effect
