摘要
目的 了解2015—2021年杭州市萧山区恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、心脑血管疾病和慢性呼吸系统疾病的死亡率、早死概率及其变化趋势,为制定慢性病防控策略提供依据。方法 通过浙江省慢性病监测管理系统收集2015—2021年萧山区4类慢性病死亡资料,计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率和早死概率;采用年均变化百分比(AAPC)分析死亡率和早死概率的变化趋势;采用2025年和2030年早死概率控制目标评价4类慢性病早死概率达标情况。结果 2015—2021年萧山区4类慢性病死亡36 130例,粗死亡率为445.20/10万,标化死亡率为237.81/10万,均呈下降趋势(AAPC=-1.427%和-4.051%,均P<0.05);早死概率由9.99%下降至7.82%(AAPC=-4.123%,P<0.05)。恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病和慢性呼吸系统疾病标化死亡率均呈下降趋势(AAPC=-3.017%,-4.999%和-6.024%,均P<0.05),糖尿病标化死亡率未见明显变化趋势(AAPC=-0.847%,P>0.05)。恶性肿瘤早死概率呈下降趋势(AAPC=-4.167%,P<0.05),糖尿病、心脑血管疾病和慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率未见明显变化趋势(AAPC=0.638%,-5.250%和-2.022%,均P>0.05)。4类慢性病早死概率平均每年下降4.00%,预测2025年和2030年早死概率可下降至6.64%和5.42%,均低于目标值7.99%和6.99%。结论 2015—2021年萧山区居民4类慢性病死亡率和早死概率呈下降趋势,其中恶性肿瘤早死概率下降较明显,预测2025年和2030年4类慢性病早死概率均能达到目标值。
Objective To investigate the mortality, probability of premature death and trends due to malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2015 to 2021, so as to provide the basis for the formulation of chronic diseases prevention and control strategies. Methods The deaths of the four diseases in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021 were collected from Zhejiang Provincial Chron⁃ ic Diseases Surveillance Information Management System. The crude mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death were calculated. The trends in mortality and probability of premature death were analyzed using aver⁃ age annual percent change (AAPC), and the attainment of probability of premature death due to the four diseases was evaluated using the targets of probability of premature death control in 2025 and 2030. Results Totally 36 130 deaths due to the four diseases were reported in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021. The crude mortality and standardized mortality were 445.20/105 and 237.81/105, which appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-1.427% and -4.051%, both P<0.05), and the probability of premature death decreased from 9.99% to 7.82%, (AAPC=-4.123%, P<0.05). The standardized mortality of malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-3.017%, -4.999%, and -6.024%, all P<0.05), while there was no significant trend in the standardized mortality of diabetes (AAPC=-0.847%, P>0.05). The probability of premature death due to malig⁃ nant tumors appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-4.167%, P<0.05), while there was no significant trends seen in the probability of premature death due to diabetes, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory dis⁃ eases (AAPC=0.638%, -5.250% and -2.022%, all P>0.05). The average probability of premature death due to the four diseases decreased by 4.00% each year, and decreased by 6.64% in 202
作者
蒋园园
王冬飞
林君英
李玉荣
高媛媛
赵芳芳
徐红
JIANG Yuanyuan;WANG Dongfei;LIN Junying;LI Yurong;GAO Yuanyuan;ZHAO Fangfang;XU Hong(Department of Chronic Disease Control and Prevention,Xiaoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 311201,China;Xiaoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 311201,China)
出处
《预防医学》
2024年第2期147-151,共5页
CHINA PREVENTIVE MEDICINE JOURNAL
关键词
慢性病
早死概率
死亡率
趋势
chronic diseases
probability of premature death
mortality
trend
