摘要
目的了解1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病、患病、死亡情况及疾病负担情况,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病情况,为评估和制定慢性阻塞性肺疾病相关预防治疗政策和措施提供数据支持。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global burden of disease study,GBD),研究分析1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的发病、患病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)、早死寿命损失年(YLL)、伤残寿命损失年(YLD)等情况。采用贝叶斯-时期-队列分析(BAPC)方法,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病率。结果相对于1990年,2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病粗患病率增长35.44%,标化患病率减少27.16%,粗发病率增长38.31%,标化发病率减少28.52%,粗死亡率减少30.59%,标化死亡率减少70.08%。1990-2019年中国人群因慢性阻塞性肺疾病导致的YLL率由3281.48/10万降至862.37/10万,YLD率由330.33/10万降至240.40/10万,DALY率由3611.81/10万降至1102.77/10万。2019年男性慢性阻塞性肺疾病DALY率相比于1990年降低66.56%,女性DALY率相比于1990年降低71.87%。2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率预计呈下降趋势,2030年男性标化发病率预计比2020年降低31.97%,女性标化发病率预计比2020年降低27.69%。结论1990-2019年,慢性阻塞性肺疾病对中国人口造成的疾病负担总体呈下降趋势。但从患病情况和死亡情况来看,发病及死亡人数较多,中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担仍处于较高水平。同时预测结果显示,未来10年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率在下降,但是仍处于较高水平,因此进行早筛查、早预防和早治疗,及广泛开展慢阻肺相关知识普及,对于做好COPD疾病管理具有重要意义。
Objective Understand the incidence,morbidity,mortality and disease burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)from 1990 to 2019 in China,predict the incidence of COPD in China from 2020 to 2030,and provide data support for the evaluation and formulation of policies and measures related to the prevention and treatment of COPD.Methods The 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study was used to analyze the incidence,morbidity,mortality,disability-adjusted life expectancy(DALY),early death life loss year(YLL)and disability life loss year(YLD)of COPD in China from 1990 to 2019.Bayesian-period-cohort analysis(BAPC)method was used to predict the incidence of COPD in China from 2020 to 2030.Results Compared with 1990,the crude prevalence of COPD was increased by 35.44%in China;the standardized prevalence was decreased by 27.16%;the crude incidence was increased by 38.31%;the standardized incidence was decreased by 28.52%;the crude mortality rate was decreased by 30.59%;and the standardized mortality rate was decreased by 70.08%in 2019.Chinese YLL rate caused by COPD was decreased from 3281.48/100000 to 862.37/100000,the YLD rate was decreased from 330.33/100000 to 240.40/100000,and the DALY rate was decreased from 3611.81/100000 to 1102.77/100000 from 1990 to 2019.In 2019,the DALY rate of COPD in men was decreased by 66.56%compared with 1990,and the DALY rate in women was decreased by 71.87%compared with 1990.From 2020 to 2030,the standardized incidence of COPD in China was expected to show a downward trend,the standardized incidence of male disease in 2030 was expected to decrease by 31.97%compared with 2020,and the standardized incidence of female disease was expected to decrease by 27.69%compared with 2020.Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the disease burden of COPD showed an overall downward trend in China.In terms of illness and death,the disease burden of COPD in China was at a high level based on the fact that the number of cases and deaths was higher.Meanwhile,the prediction results show the standardized incidence o
作者
王文星
王璐
邬超
戴江红
蒋红
高发水
WANG Wenxing;WANG Lu;WU Chao;DAI Jianghong;JIANG Hong;GAO Fashui(Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830017,China;People's Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830001,China)
出处
《新疆医科大学学报》
CAS
2024年第1期135-140,共6页
Journal of Xinjiang Medical University
基金
新疆医科大学医学科学研究所开放课题项目(YXYJ20230104)。
关键词
慢性阻塞性肺疾病
疾病负担
发病预测
伤残调整寿命年
贝叶斯-时期-队列分析
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)
burden of disease
prognosis of morbidity
disability-adjusted life expectancy years
Bayesian-period-cohort analysis
