摘要
为探讨数字经济对城市碳排放的影响,基于2011—2020年中国283个地级以上城市的面板数据,构建综合评价指标体系测算数字经济指数,核算各城市碳排放量,采用SBM模型测算城市碳排放效率,并以产业结构高级化和合理化指数来刻画城市的产业结构升级,在此基础上进行计量分析。结果发现:数字经济发展能够提升碳排放效率,二者呈现出“U”型关系,数字经济发展能够降低碳排放强度和减少碳排放量,均呈现出倒“U”型关系;数字经济能够通过技术创新或产业结构升级影响碳排放,且技术创新和产业结构升级在数字经济与碳排放之间存在链式中介效应;数字经济、技术创新和产业结构升级对城市碳排放存在门槛效应,数字经济和技术创新在门槛值前后对碳排放效率的影响均呈现“先抑后扬”,对碳排放量的影响为“先扬后抑”,对碳排放强度跨越门槛后有显著的抑制作用,产业结构高级化和合理化指数跨越门槛值后能够提高碳排放效率、减少碳排放量,但对碳排放强度不产生影响。最后,基于实证结论提出了相应的政策建议。
In order to explore the impact of the digital economy on urban carbon emissions,based on the panel data of 283 cities above the prefecture level in China from 2011 to 2020,this paper builds a comprehensive evaluation index system to measure the digital economy index,calculates the carbon emissions of each city,and uses the SBM model to measure the city.The carbon emission efficiency,and the industrial structure upgrading and rationalization index are used to describe the industrial structure upgrading of the city,and quantitative analysis is carried out on this basis.The results show that the development of digital economy can improve the efficiency of carbon emissions,both showing a“U”shaped relationship.The development of digital economy can reduce carbon emission intensity and carbon emissions,both showing an inverted“U”shaped relationship;the digital economy can affect carbon emissions through technological innovation or industrial structure upgrading,and technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading have a chain intermediary effect between the digital economy and carbon emissions;Digital economy,technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading have thresholds for urban carbon emissions before and after the threshold value.The digital economy and technological innovation show a“first decrease and then increase”for carbon emission efficiency,and a“first increase and then a decrease”for carbon emissions,which has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity after crossing the threshold.After the industrial structure advanced and rationalization index crosses the threshold,it can improve carbon emission efficiency and reduce carbon emission,but it has no impact on carbon emission intensity.Finally,based on empirical conclusions,corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.
作者
曹建飞
韩延玲
刘慧龙
CAO Jianfei;HAN Yanling;LIU Huilong(Institute of Statistics and Data Science,Xinjiang University of Finance&Economics,Urumqi Xinjiang 830012,China;The People’s Bank of China Urumqi Central Sub-Branch,Urumqi Xinjiang 830012,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2024年第2期39-51,共13页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“数字经济促进新疆高质量发展的机制与路径研究”(21XJY019)。
关键词
数字经济
碳排放
面板门槛回归
链式中介效应
digital economy
carbon emissions
panel threshold regression
chain mediation effect
