摘要
中国西南林区火源复杂,人为干扰大,多为喀斯特地貌和农林交错区,山形复杂,是中国林火发生的重灾区。分析该区域林火发生驱动因子,并进行火险区划,对于该地区合理的林火管理工作具有重要意义。本研究以西南地区的贵州省为对象,基于2011—2020年的森林火点数据、地理空间数据、气象数据、植被数据和人类活动数据等,利用ArcGIS 10.7的空间分析和R Studio等软件分析贵州省近10年林火分布时空格局,得到林火发生的驱动因子和概率预测模型,分别绘制春夏秋冬4个季节的贵州省林火发生概率和森林火险区划图。结果表明:近10年,贵州省火点数量逐年呈下降趋势,每年主要集中在1—3月,占全年火点数量的61%;距居民点距离、距铁路距离、人口密度、逐月平均空气温度、逐月平均相对湿度和逐月累计降雨量对贵州省林火发生概率有显著影响,得到模型的预测准确率为81.9%,曲线下面积为0.904;贵州省春季林火发生概率高于其他季节,且春、秋和冬季的森林火灾高火险区主要集中在贵州省西部,而夏季则主要是贵州东部的林火发生概率较高。研究得到贵州省林火发生驱动因子和基于季节火险区划图,对于该地区科学林火管理具有重要意义,贵州西部林火发生概率主要在偏远地区,应该增加瞭望塔和视频监控等设备,加强巡护,提高监测范围和时效,对于贵州东部夏季,应该加强防火宣传和人为活动管控,减少火源出现概率。
The forest area of southwest China has complex fire sources and human interference,most of which are karst landform and in the ecotone of agriculture and forestry,leading to the most serious forest fire disaster area in China.The area has high mountains and steep slopes,making it extremely difficult to extinguish a fire once it occurs.It is of great significance to analyze the driving factors of forest fire in this region and to carry out fire risk zoning for rational forest fire management.Based on the forest fire point data,geospatial data,meteorological data,vegetation data and human activity data from 2011 to 2020,the spatiotemporal pattern of forest fire distribution in Guizhou in the past decade was analyzed,and the driving factors and probability prediction model of forest fire occurrence were obtained.The forest fire occurrence probability and forest fire risk zoning map of Guizhou in dfferent seasons were analyzed.The results showed that in the past 10 years,the number of fire points in Guizhou showed a downward trend year by year.Fire points were mainly concentrated from January to March,accounting for 61%of the total number of fire points in a whole year.Distance from residential areas,distance from railways,population density,monthly average air temperature,monthly average relative humidity and monthly cumulative rainfall had significant effects on the probability of forest fire in Guizhou.A Logistic regression model was established.The prediction accuracy of the model was 81.9%,and the area under the curve was 0.904.The occurrence probability of forest fire in spring was higher than that in other seasons.The high-risk areas of forest fires in spring,autumn,and winter was mainly concentrated in western Guizhou,while the high-risk areas in summer were mainly distributed in eastern Guizhou.Research on the driving factors of forest fire occurrence and fire risk zoning maps based on the seasons is of great significance to the scientific management of forest fires in Guizhou.Forest fires in western Guizhou
作者
张运林
田玲玲
丁波
张延威
刘讯
武燕
ZHNAGYulin;TIAN Lingling;DING Bo;ZHANG Yanwei;LIU Xun;WU Yan(School of Biological Sciences,Guizhou Education,University,Guiyang 550018,China;Key Laboratory of Forest Fire Ecology and Management of Guizhou Province,Guizhou Education University,Guiyang 550018,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期282-289,共8页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
贵州省科技支撑计划项目(黔科合支撑[2022]249)
贵州省科技计划项目一般类型(黔科合基础-ZK[2021]一般158)资助。
