摘要
目的评估长期暴露于大气细颗粒物(fine particulate matter,PM_(2.5))5种成分(黑炭、铵盐、硝酸盐、有机物、硫酸盐)对肾功能的长期效应。方法基于中国健康与养老追踪调查(China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study,CHARLS)2011年和2015年的数据,纳入5696名中老年人,使用贝叶斯核机器回归(Bayesian kernel machine regression,BKMR)方法探究黑炭、铵盐、硝酸盐、有机物和硫酸盐5种PM_(2.5)成分对肾功能的单独效应、交互效应和联合效应。结果2011—2015年慢性肾脏病发生率为5.53%。有机物、黑炭、硝酸盐和硫酸盐的后验包含概率(posterior inclusion probabilities,PIP)值均为1.000,对估算肾小球滤过率(estimated glomerular filtration rate,eGFR)的影响较大。当其余4种变量固定在第25,50和75百分位时,有机物每增加1个四分位数间距(interquartile range,IQR),估算肾小球滤过率eGFR效应值分别为-9.18(95%CI:-40.16,21.80),-61.57(95%CI:-87.50,-35.64),10.24(95%CI:-16.53,37.01);黑炭每增加1个IQR,eGFR水平分别上升16.67(95%CI:-12.50,45.84),33.30(95%CI:10.30,56.30),53.40(95%CI:25.00,81.80);硫酸盐每增加1个IQR,eGFR水平与其呈负相关,效应值分别为-89.83(95%CI:-161.17,-18.47),-73.28(95%CI:-102.49,-44.47),-22.76(95%CI:-91.42,45.90)。PM_(2.5)组分联合效应与估计肾小球滤过率总体呈负相关。结论有机物单独暴露与中老年人估计肾小球滤过率水平降低相关,PM_(2.5)混合物与估计肾小球滤过率呈负相关关联,对慢性肾脏病具有正联合影响。
Objective To evaluate the long-term effects of exposure to atmospheric fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))components(black carbon,ammonium salts,nitrates,organic matter,and sulfates)on renal function.Methods Based on the data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)from 2011 to 2015,a total of 5696 middle-aged and elderly people were includ-ed to explore the individual,interactive,and combined effects of the five PM_(2.5) components above on renal function by the Bayesian kernel machine regression(BKMR)method.Results The incidence of chronic kidney disease during 2011 to 2015 was 5.53%.The posterior inclusion probability(PIP)values of organic matter,black carbon,nitrates,and sulfates were all 1.000,indicating great im-pact on the estimated glomerular filtration rate(eGFR).When the other four variables were fixed at the 25th,50th,and 75th percen-tile,for each increase in organic matter by a quartile,eGFR changed by-9.18(95%confidence interval[CI]:-40.16,21.80),-61.57(95%CI:-87.50,-35.64),and 10.24(95%CI:-16.53,37.01),respectively;for each increase in black carbon by a quartile,the eGFR level increased by 16.67(95%CI:-12.50,45.84),33.30(95%CI:10.30,56.30),and 53.40(95%CI:25.00,81.80),respectively;eGFR was negatively correlated with sulfates,and for each increase in sulfates by a quartile,the chan-ges were-89.83(95%CI:-161.17,-18.47),-73.28(95%CI:-102.49,-44.47),and-22.76(95%CI:-91.42,45.9),respectively.The combined effect of the PM_(2.5) components was generally negatively correlated with eGFR.Conclusion Organic matter exposure alone is associated with decreased eGFR levels in middle-aged and elderly people.PM_(2.5) mixture has a negative correlation with eGFR,with a positive combined effect on the risk of chronic kidney disease.
作者
欧阳逸馨
谢文涵
李元
苏宇腾
薛咏茜
李舒婷
胡美玲
刘相佟
OU′YANG Yi-xin;XIE Wen-han;LI Yuan;SU Yu-teng;XUE Yong-xi;LI Shu-ting;HU Mei-ing;LIU Xiang-tong(School of Public Health,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069,China;Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology)
出处
《环境卫生学杂志》
2024年第1期36-43,共8页
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE
基金
国家自然科学基金(82003559)。
关键词
贝叶斯核机器回归
细颗粒物
慢性肾脏病
估计肾小球滤过率
Bayesian kernel machine regression
fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))
chronic kidney disease
estimated glomerular
