摘要
文章从全球价值链视角入手,采用三维数据检验了全球价值链前向嵌入与后向嵌入对出口汇率弹性的影响,并且构建门槛模型进一步分析了在嵌入的不同阶段,全球价值链嵌入对出口汇率弹性影响的异质性。研究结果表明,全球价值链嵌入弱化了出口汇率弹性,是汇率变动与出口关系疏离的影响因素,全球价值链嵌入程度越深对出口汇率弹性的削弱作用越强。因此,深度嵌入全球价值链能够有效应对汇率变动对出口的冲击;政府部门在制定相关政策时也应充分考虑全球价值链嵌入对汇率变动效应所带来的抵消作用,以免产生过于乐观的政策预期。
From the perspective of global value chain,this paper uses three-dimensional data to test the impact of forward and backward global value chain embeddedness on export exchange rate elasticity,and builds a threshold model to further analyze the heterogeneity of the impact of global value chain embeddedness on export exchange rate elasticity at different stages of embeddedness.The results show that the global value chain embeddedness weakens the export exchange rate elasticity,which is the influencing factor of the alienation between exchange rate fluctuations and exports.The deeper the embeddedness of global value chain,the stronger the weakening effect on the export exchange rate elasticity.Therefore,deeply embedded global value chains can effectively deal with the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on exports.Government departments should also fully consider the offset effect of global value chain embeddedness on exchange rate fluctuations when formulating relevant policies,so as to avoid overly optimistic policy expectations.
作者
印梅
张靖琦
管竞
YIN Mei;ZHANG Jingqi;GUAN Jing(Nantong University,Nantong 226000,China)
出处
《山西经济管理干部学院学报》
2023年第4期34-38,共5页
Journal of Shanxi Institute of Economic Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“全球价值链嵌入背景下汇率不确定与我国出口贸易‘稳中提质’研究”(19BJY189)。
关键词
全球价值链
人民币双边汇率
门槛模型
global value chain
bilateral exchange rate of RMB
threshold model