摘要
为保障珠江口大型船舶安全引航,针对大型船舶进港过程中的高风险航段进行管控是非常必要的。通过对港口水域引航风险影响因素分析,引入未确知测度数学模型,采用Copula函数测量风险因素之间的权重关系,建立基于未确知测度的港口水域引航风险评估模型。结合大型船舶的实际进港多个场景,对珠江口引航过程进行量化评估,揭示相对显著的重要航段引航作业风险态势特征。实例验证表明:大型船舶在珠江口进港引航中,船舶在引航中后段的风险程度为中等;潮流是影响船舶引航风险态势的关键因素之一。
The influencing factors of risks that associated with piloting a ship in port are analyzed and their unascertained measurement model of the factors are identified.Copula function is used to weigh the risk factors and a risk assessment model involving the factors with uncertainty is built.Particularly,the process of piloting a ship through the Pearl River Estuary is quantitatively studied through analyzing several scenarios.Relatively significant situation features of pilotage operation are identified and risk assessment is conducted.The results are examined against practical pilotage processes and proved.The research shows that the risk level in middle-late stages of piloting a ship through the pearl river estuary is medium and tide is the critical factor influencing the risk situation.
作者
陈浩
胡甚平
王发根
轩少永
CHEN Hao;HU Shenping;WANG Fagen;XUAN Shaoyong(Guangzhou Port Pilot Station,Guangzhou 510799,China;Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)
出处
《中国航海》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期38-45,共8页
Navigation of China
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC2801005)
国家自然科学基金项目(52272353)。
关键词
通航环境
船舶引航
未确知测度
COPULA函数
风险评估
navigational environment
ship pilotage
unascertained measurement
Copula function
risk assessment
