摘要
利用LUCC模型和MSPA-MCR方法对2040年长江经济带“山水林田湖草”生态要素进行分析和模拟,并基于此进行生态安全格局多情景模拟,结果表明:(1)研究区2020年生态要素以林地(1052086 km^(2))和耕地(667456 km^(2))为主,生态要素结构变化表现为草地、水域和耕地的持续减少以及林地的小幅增加,发生变化区域主要位于上游的川藏地区、横断山区、秦巴山地和中下游的武陵山区、黄山地区、长江中下游平原。(2)不同情景下2040年生态要素面积和空间特征差异明显,生态要素总面积仅在生产优先情景下增长,其他4种情景下均减少,生态要素扩张主要发生在不同要素过渡区,萎缩则主要发生在建设用地和生态用地的衔接区。(3)确定现状重要生态源地30个,总面积352573 km^(2),平均连通度3.77,连接重要生态源地的生态廊道69条,平均长度约260 km。重要生态源地的主要构成要素是林地和草地,呈大块状集中分布在长江经济带的上游地区,小块状分散分布在中下游地区。(4)生态优先和综合优化情景下研究区将形成生态网络更加复杂、生态源地连通性更好、更加健康稳定的生态系统格局。
This paper conducts a multi-scenario simulation of the ecological security pattern based on an analysis and simulation of the ecological elements of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2040 using the LUCC model and the MSPAMCR method.The findings reveal that:1) In 2020,the study area's current ecological elements are dominated by forest land(1052086 km^(2)) and arable land(667456 km^(2)),and the structural change of these elements is manifested by the continual decrease of grassland,water,and arable land,and the small increase of forest land.The change areas are mainly located in the upper reaches of Sichuan-Tibet area,Hengduan Mountains area,Qinba Mountains area,the middle and lower reaches of Wuling Mountains area,Huangshan area and the lower reaches of Yangtze River plain.2) The area and spatial characteristics of ecological elements in 2040 are significantly different under different scenarios.The total area of ecological elements increases only under the production priority scenario and decreases under the other four scenarios.The expansion of ecological elements primarily takes place in the transition zone of different elements,while the shrinkage of ecological elements primarily takes place in the interface zone of construction land and ecological land.3)30 significant ecological source regions which have a combined area of 352573 km^(2)and an average connectedness of3.77 connect 69 ecological corridors,with an average length of around 260 km.Significant biological source regions mainly consist of forestland and grassland,which shows the big-block cluster distribution characteristic in the upper reaches of Yangtze River Economic Belt and the small-block cluster distribution characteristic in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Economic Belt.4) The ecological priority scenario and the integrated optimization scenario will result in a more complex ecological network,better connectivity of ecological sources and a healthier and more stable ecosystem pattern in the study area.
作者
刘小琼
何鹏飞
韩继财
肖浩
王英男
LIU Xiaoqiong;HE Pengfei;HAN Jicai;XIAO Hao;WANG Yingnan(School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,Hubei,China;Kanazawa University,Kanazawa 9201192,Ishikawa,Japan;School of Physical Education,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,Hubei,China;Hubei Institute of Land Surveying and Mapping,Wuhan 430010,Hubei,China;Shishou Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning,Shishou 434400,Hubei,China;Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center,Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China,Beijing 100035,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第12期192-203,共12页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42371259)。
关键词
山水林田湖草
生态要素
生态安全格局
生态源地
连通性
多情景模拟
长江经济带
mountain,river,forest,farmland,lake and grassland
ecological element
ecological security pattern
ecological source region
connectivity
multi-scenario simulation
Yangtze River Economic Belt
