摘要
基于土地利用数据和景观生态风险评价模型,分析2000—2020年长株潭都市圈景观生态风险时空演变特征,结合PLUS模型科学预测自然发展情景和生态保护情景下2030年长株潭都市圈的景观生态风险空间分布格局。结果表明:①2000—2020年长株潭都市圈景观生态风险呈现北高南低、西高东低的空间分布特征,较低和中等生态风险区域总面积占比大于60%,生态风险加剧区域面积不到生态风险降低区域面积的1%,整体表现出高等级生态风险区向低等级生态风险区转移的特征;②研究区景观生态风险表现出较强的空间集聚特征,高—高集聚区主要分布在宁乡市、望城区、渌口区、雨花区和长沙县,低—低集聚区主要分布在研究区边界;③相比自然发展情景,生态保护情景下生态用地减少速率变缓,有助于缓解研究区生态风险,有利于构建和谐有序的生态安全格局。
Based on land use data and the landscape ecological risk evaluation model,this paper analyses the spatial and temporal characteristics of landscape ecological risk in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area from 2000 to 2020,and combines the PLUS model to make scientific predictions on the spatial distribution pattern of landscape ecological risk in the Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area in 2030 under the natural development scenario and the ecological protection scenario.It is found as follows.①From 2000 to 2020,the landscape ecological risk in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area showed the distribution characteristics of high in the north and low in the south,high in the west and low in the east.The proportion of lower and medium ecological risk areas accounted for more than 60%of the total area.In the past 20 years,the area of ecological risk intensification was less than 1%of the area of ecological risk reduction,which showed the characteristics of the transfer from high level ecological risk area to low level ecological risk area.②The values of Moran′s I of landscape ecological risk in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area were all positive,which showed strong spatial agglomeration characteristics.High-high agglomeration areas with high landscape ecological risk values were mainly distributed in Ningxiang City,Wangcheng District,Lukou District,Yuhua District and Changsha County,while low-low agglomeration areas with low landscape ecological risk values were mainly distributed at the boundary of the study area.③The results of landscape ecological risk prediction show that compared with the"natural development scenario",the"ecological protection scenario"slows down the rate of ecological land reduction,which is more conducive to mitigating the ecological risk of the study area.This scenario is more in line with the future development needs and planning of the city,which is conducive to the construction of a harmonious and orderly ecological security pattern in
作者
邓晓辉
王琳
欧彩虹
王文佳
DENG Xiaohui;WANG Lin;OU Caihong;WANG Wenjia(Academy of Digital China(Fujian),Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350003;College of Environment and Safety Engineering,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116;Academy of Geography and Ecological Environment,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116;Institute of Remote Sensing Information Engineering,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116;Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Soil Erosion and Disaster Protection,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116,China)
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期47-54,98,共9页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
国家自然科学基金重点支持项目(U2005205)
福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JAT200031)
福建省自然科学基金面上项日(2023J01417)。
关键词
景观生态风险
PLUS模型
多情景模拟
长株潭都市圈
landscape ecological risk
PLUS model
multi-scenario simulation
Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area
