摘要
铁路货运安全是确保铁路行车安全、货物安全、旅客安全的重要基础,是确保铁路货运持续增量的重要支撑。针对当前铁路货运安全事故隐患分析耗时长、错误多的问题,按照5M1E质量管理思路,结合铁路货运作业主要安全风险环节,系统分析铁路货运安全风险影响因素,基于博德和罗夫特斯构建的事故致因链模型,提出基于5M1E的铁路货运事故致因模型,运用Apriori算法对影响因素、动作状态、事故隐患进行关联分析,基于S铁路公司2017—2018年货运安全事故及险兆事件信息,得出铁路货运系统安全事故及影响因素关联规则,为铁路货运安全风险精准识别与管控提供参考。与当前按字段筛选、查找、统计的风险关联分析方法相比,大幅减少管理人员风险评估工作强度,极大提升铁路货运安全风险识别与防控能力。
The safety of railway freight transportation,as an essential guarantee for the safety of railway operation,cargo,and passengers,is an important support to ensure the continuous increase of railway freight volume.Aiming at long time consumption and errors in the analysis of the current problems existing in railway freight safety,according to the 5M1E quality management concept,this paper considered the major areas of safety risks during railway freight operation and systematically analyzed the factors affecting railway freight safety.Based on the accident causation chain model constructed by Bode and Roftus,the accident phenomenon model of railway freight was proposed based on 5M1E.This paper further used Apriori algorithm to analyze the correlation between influencing factors,movement status and potential accident risks.Based on the data of freight safety accidents and near-miss events of S railway company from 2017 to 2018,the association rules of railway freight system safety accidents and influencing factors were obtained,providing reference for the precise management and control of railway freight safety risks.Compared with the current risk correlation analysis method of screening,searching and statistics by fields,it can significantly reduce the workload of risk assessment for management personnel,and greatly improve the ability to identify and prevent railway freight safety risks.
作者
叶飞
刘启钢
石磊
孙文桥
杨瑜
金晶
YE Fei;LIU Qigang;SHI Lei;SUN Wenqiao;YANG Yu;JIN Jing(Postgraduate Department,China Academy of Railway Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Transportation&Economics Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China;Freight Transport Department,China State Railway Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100844,China)
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期34-41,共8页
Journal of the China Railway Society
基金
中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划(K2023X006)
中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研项目(2023YJ264)。
关键词
铁路货运
作业安全风险
事故致因
关联推理
关联规则
railway freight
operation safety risk
accident cause
correlation inference
apriori algorithm
