摘要
随着我国外来鱼类养殖规模和观赏鱼产业规模持续发展扩大,外来鱼类的生态风险也日益增加,研判外来鱼类的潜在地理分布对防控生物入侵具有重要意义。本研究以典型外来鱼类食蚊鱼(Gambusia affinis)为研究对象,采用最大熵生态位模型(MaxEnt),结合131个食蚊鱼有效分布点位数据以及11个可能影响其地理分布的环境因子,预测分析了食蚊鱼在我国的潜在地理分布及其影响因素。结果显示:(1)MaxEnt模型对食蚊鱼潜在地理分布预测的精度较高(AUC=0.977),影响食蚊鱼潜在地理分布的主要环境因子为年平均最低水温(39.0%)、人口密度(32.8%)、最干月降雨量(10.2%)和海拔(9.4%);(2)食蚊鱼在我国潜在地理分布面积为175.75×104 km^(2),主要集中在珠江流域、东南诸河和淮河流域、长江流域中下游以及西南诸河流域的云南区域,预测在未来环境温度升高的情况下,食蚊鱼有进一步扩散的风险。为防控食蚊鱼以及其他外来鱼类的入侵,建议完善外来鱼类贸易和养殖的行业规范。
The increasing aquaculture of exotic fishes and the expansion of the ornamental fish industry have increased biological invasion risk.It is of great significance to analyze the potential geographical distribution of exotic fishes to prevent and control of biological invasions.This study used MaxEnt model(based on 132 presence points and nine environmental factors)to predict the geographical distribution of Gambusia affinis in China.In the same time,the environmental and ecological factors which are significant to its distribution were also explored.The results showed that:(1)The area under the model′s receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)value was 0.977,indicating that the simulation effect of the model was good.The dominant environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of G.affinis are the annual average minimum water temperature(39.0%),population density(32.8%),precipitation of driest month(10.2%)and altitude(9.4%);(2)The potential geographical distribution area of G.affinis in China is 175.75×104 km^(2),mainly located in the Pearl River Basin,Southeast River Basin,Huai River Basin,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin in China.Climate change is expected to increase the risk of G.affinis invasion.In order to prevent and control the invasion of G.affinis and other exotic fishes,it is recommended to improve the industry regulations for the trade and breeding of exotic fishes.
作者
万朝阳
方康
吴金明
牟希东
董芳
张辉
WAN Chaoyang;FANG Kang;WU Jinming;MU Xidong;DONG Fang;ZHANG Hui(Yangtze River Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences/Key Laboratory of Freshwater Biodiversity Conservation,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China,Wuhan 430223,China;Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Aquatic Invasive Alien Species,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Pearl River Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences,Guangzhou 510380,China;College of Fisheries,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)
出处
《淡水渔业》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期3-10,共8页
Freshwater Fisheries
基金
农业农村部外来入侵水生生物防控重点实验室开放基金课题(20220302)
农业农村部长江流域渔政监督管理办公室政府采购服务项目(CJBRKT2022-05)
农业农村部科技教育司“农业外来入侵物种发生危害及扩散风险等调查”(13220168)。
关键词
外来鱼类
生物入侵
物种分布模型
潜在地理分布
生物多样性
exotic fish
biological invasion
species distribution model
potential geographical distribution
biodiversity
