24年榨季展望被引量：2

Domestic and Foreign Sugar Markets in 2022/23 Crushing Season and Their Prospect for 2023/24 Crushing Season

下载PDF

导出

摘要因巴西、泰国增产抵消了印度和欧盟减产,2022/23年榨季全球食糖产量同比增2.09%,全球食糖供需紧平衡。因甘蔗糖主产区广西和广东遭遇干旱天气,国内产糖量同比减6.17%;糖价高位运行、配额外进口利润持续倒挂导致配额外进口大降,食糖进口量同比下滑,糖浆和预混粉进口量同比大增;消费量因疫情解封叠加政策扶持同比基本持平,2022/23年榨季食糖销售进度偏快,新增工业库存处于近10年低位;因高糖价和经济复苏不及预期,下游含糖食品消费不及预期;榨季前期基差在0值附近波动,随后持续走强,榨季末高位平稳运行。展望2023/24年榨季,近期全球食糖供应由紧平衡转向偏宽松的同时,仍面临较大的不确定性。预计巴西和欧盟增产,泰国和印度减产但减幅仍不确定,国际糖价在每磅17~25美分震荡运行可能较大。国内食糖产量预计恢复性增加,但主产区气候风险犹存;因国内外供需形势总体缓和,国内糖价重心下移。未来还需关注巴西产糖进度、印泰产量预估和贸易政策、厄尔尼诺天气以及宏观经济形势对全球食糖供给的影响。 Global sugar production increased by 2.09%year-on-year in the 2022/23 crushing season due to production increases in Brazil and Thailand offsetting production cuts in India and the European Union,leaving global sugar supply and demand tightly balanced.Due to the main cane sugar producing areas of Guangxi and Guangdong suffered drought weather,domestic sugar production decreased by 6.17%year-on-year;high sugar prices,the continued inversion of the profit of extra-quota imports led to a big drop in extra-quota imports,sugar imports declined year-on-year,molasses and pre-mixed powder imports increased significantly year-on-year;consumption was basically flat year-on-year due to the unblocking of epidemics overlaid on policy support,the sugar sales in the 2022/23 crushing season progressed at a fast pace,and new industrial inventory were at the lowest level in the last 10 years;due to high sugar prices and economic recovery is not as expected,downstream consumption of sugary foods is not as expected;basis fluctuated around 0 in the early part of the crushing season,then continued to strengthen,and finally plateaued at a high level at the end of 2022/23 crushing season.Looking forward to 2023/24 crushing season,the recent global sugar supply from a tight balance to a easing one,but still faces larger uncertainties.Brazil and the EU are expected to increase production,Thailand and India to reduce production but the extent of the reduction is still uncertain.Therefore,the international sugar prices are more likely to oscillate at 17 to 25 cents per pound.Domestic sugar production is expected to increase resiliently,but there are still climate risk in the main producing areas.The center of gravity of domestic sugar prices shifted down due to the overall easing of the supply and demand situation at home and abroad.In the future,we also need to pay attention to the progress of Brazil's sugar production,India and Thailand production estimates and trade policies,El Niño weather and macroeconomic conditions on the global sug

作者刘晓雪蒙威宇李维 LIU Xiaoxue;MENG Weiyu;LI Wei(School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048)

机构地区北京工商大学经济学院

出处《甘蔗糖业》 2023年第6期69-83,共15页 Sugarcane and Canesugar

基金国家现代农业产业技术体系(糖料)建设专项经费资助(CARS-170601)。