摘要
本研究利用2019年与2020年全球86个国家的产品贸易数据,对疫情后全球商品贸易格局进行刻画,并应用回归分析方法,对新冠疫情影响下的全球贸易变化影响因素进行探讨。结论如下:1)尽管疫情前后世界贸易的总体格局并未发生明显改变,但以中国为代表的发展中国家的重要程度得到显著提升。2)新冠疫情影响下的全球产品贸易格局发生了较大的改变,重工业产品贸易数量和比重明显下降,而宝石和贵金属商品贸易量和比重却大幅增加。3)疫情爆发后,西班牙、澳大利亚、中国以及瑞士分别在运输设备、采石和采矿、电气和机械商品以及宝石和贵金属商品上展示出了显性比较优势。4)全球贸易变化影响因素分析表明,工业化水平对于维持国家贸易量以及维护国际贸易地位具有重要的意义。相反,国际贸易依赖程度的增加则会在一定程度上降低该国的贸易韧性。研究结果可为公共危机事件中全球贸易格局的评估,以及国家贸易产业配置合理化提供一定参考。
In order to depict the global commodity trade pattern following the epidemic,this paper uses product trade data from 86 countries worldwide in 2019 and 2020.Regression analysis is then used to investigate the variables influencing changes in global trade under the influence of the new crown epidemic.The conclusions are as follow,1)the role of developing nations,represented by China,was greatly boosted despite the fact that the global trade pattern as a whole did not change significantly before and after the outbreak.2)As a result of the New Crown epidemic,the pattern of global product trade underwent a significant change,with the volume and proportion of trade in heavy industrial products significantly decreasing and the volume and proportion of trade in precious stones and metal commodities significantly increasing.3)Following the Covid-19 outbreak,Spain,Australia,China,and Switzerland each displayed sizable comparative advantages in the production of transportation equipment,mining and quarrying products,electrical and mechanical goods,and gem and precious metal products.4)The level of industrialization is crucial for maintaining both national trade volumes and international trade positions,according to the examination of factors influencing changes in global commerce.On the other hand,a rise in reliance on foreign commerce diminishes the nation s trade resilience to some extent.The findings of this study can serve as a point of reference for both rationalizing the country s trade sector configuration and evaluating the global trade pattern during times of national crises.
作者
庄星辉
王强
周婷
党牛
ZHUANG Xinghui;WANG Qiang;ZHOU Ting;DANG Niu(School of Geographical Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China;Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Subtropical Resources and Environment,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China)
出处
《亚热带资源与环境学报》
2023年第4期58-68,共11页
Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41971159)。
关键词
新冠肺炎
全球贸易
格局演变
影响因素
COVID-19
global trade
pattern evolution
influence factor
