摘要
为揭示城市交通政策对停车需求管理的影响传导机理,强化不同交通政策导向下的停车需求合理管控,应用系统动力学方法分析了交通政策与停车需求管理之间的因果反馈关系,刻画了不同交通政策因素与停车需求管理的互动反馈结构,通过建立因果关系图、系统流图以及进行模型有效性检验筛选出对停车需求管理影响显著的交通政策。研究发现:系统动力学模型中的停车系统模拟输出数值与实际调查数据的拟合误差低于10%,表明停车需求管理与交通政策之间具有显著的因果逻辑关系,交通供给政策、公交优先政策、限制小汽车使用政策、拥堵收费政策、区域差别化调控政策对停车系统供应水平形成直接的传导影响。因此,不同交通政策导向应采用差异化的停车需求管理举措,鼓励停车配建指标应结合交通政策进行联动调整,以促进动静态交通体系协同,引导绿色低碳出行。
To reveal the impact transmission mechanism of urban transportation policies on parking demand management,and strengthen reasonable control of parking demand under different transportation policy orientations,the system dynamics method was applied to analyze the causal feedback relationship between transportation policies and parking demand management.The interactive feedback structure of different transportation policies on parking demand management was depicted.By establishing a causal relationship diagram,system flow chart,and conducting model validity tests,the transportation policies that had a significant impact on parking demand management were selected.The research results found that the fitting error between the simulated output values of the parking system in the system dynamics model and the actual survey data was less than 10%,which proved the significant causal logic relationship between parking demand management and transportation policies.The transportation supply policies,public transport priority policies,restrictions on car using policies,congestion pricing policies,and regional differentiated regulation policies had a direct transmission impact on the supply level of the parking system.Therefore,differentiated parking demand management measures should be adopted under different transportation policy orientations,and parking allocation indicators are encouraged to be adjusted in conjunction with transportation policies,which can promote the coordination of dynamic and static transportation systems,and guide green and low-carbon travel.
作者
汤祥
程皖蓉
赵乐
尹超英
李根
TANG Xiang;CHENG Wanrong;ZHAO Le;YIN Chaoying;LI Gen(College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Nanjing Institute of City&Transport Planning Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210008,China)
出处
《交通运输研究》
2023年第6期55-65,共11页
Transport Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72204114)。
关键词
交通政策
停车
系统动力学
需求管理
公交优先
道路容量
transportation policy
parking
system dynamics
demand management
public transport priority
road capacity
