摘要
近年来极端暴雨频率呈上升趋势,面对极端暴雨给城市带来的巨大财产损失和人员伤亡,评价城市脆弱性,确定城市应对暴雨的能力是脆弱性研究中的重要方向。该文通过阐述城市脆弱性的内涵及特点,梳理了极端暴雨情景下的城市脆弱性的主要影响指标,从敏感程度、易损程度和应对能力三个方面构建极端暴雨情景下的城市脆弱性评价指标体系,并运用AHP、熵权法和灰色关联度法构建基于AHP-熵权法的灰色关联度评价模型,最后以秦淮河流域南京地区为例进行实例分析。结果表明:在极端暴雨条件下,南京市城市脆弱性为中低等级;与极端暴雨条件相关的指标中,最长洪水淹没历时和洪峰调蓄容量是影响南京市城市脆弱性的主要因素。南京城市脆弱性的主要障碍因素有人均地方财政支出、建成区排水管道密度、城市污水集中处理率和人均地区生产总值。
In recent years,the frequency of extreme rainstorms has been on the rise,and in the face of the huge property losses and casualties brought by extreme rainstorms to cities,evaluating urban vulnerability and determining the city's ability to cope with heavy rainfall is an important direction in vulnerability research.By elaborating the connotation and characteristics of urban vulnerability,we analyze the main influencing indicators of urban vulnerability under extreme rainstorm scenarios,construct an urban vulnerability assessment index system under extreme rainstorm scenarios from three aspects:sensitivity,vulnerability and response capacity,and constructs a grey correlation evaluation model based on AHP-entropy weight method by using AHP,entropy weight method and grey correlation method,and finally takes Nanjing area in the Qinhuai River Basin as an example for case analysis.The results showed that the urban vulnerability of Nanjing under extreme rainstorm conditions was medium to low.Among the indicators related to extreme rainstorm conditions,the longest flood inundation duration and peak flood storage capacity are the main factors affecting the urban vulnerability of Nanjing.The main obstacles to urban vulnerability in Nanjing are:per capita local fiscal expenditure,built-up area drainage pipe density,centralized urban sewage treatment rate,and per capita gross regional product.
作者
程娅娅
高玉琴
刘云苹
徐龙升
CHENG Yaya;GAO Yuqin;LIU Yunping;XU Longsheng(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期222-227,234,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金“高度城市化流域对极端暴雨洪水响应研究”(52079039)
国家重点研发计划“洪涝灾害多元信息集成监测预报与智能调度技术”(2021YFC3000104)。
关键词
极端暴雨
城市脆弱性
AHP-熵权法
灰色关联度
障碍度
extreme rainstorm
urban vulnerability
AHP-entropy weight method
grey relational degree
obstacles
