摘要
自然灾害是湖南省面临的主要灾害之一,确定自然灾害风险可接受程度对该省的可持续发展意义重大。通过分析湖南省2010~2020年因灾死亡人数与经济损失、总人口、GDP等数据,参照国内外相关研究,开展自然灾害风险可接受水平研究。取意愿系数β=0.01,确定个人生命可接受风险标准;使用人均GDP这一指标,量化个人可接受经济风险;根据最低合理可行准则,分别构建社会生命与经济风险可接受准则模型。结果表明:个人可接受和可容忍生命风险分别为10^(-6)/a和10^(-5)/a;个人可接受经济风险指数为0.01,即个人经济风险的可接受风险范围不超过人均GDP的1%;因灾死亡100人的概率大于10^(-9)、经济损失10亿元的概率大于10^(-2)都属于不可接受风险。研究结果可用于辅助湖南省自然灾害风险的评估、决策与管理,也为其他地区相关研究提供参考。
Natural disasters are one of the main disasters faced by Hunan Province,and determining the acceptable level of natural disaster risks is of great significance to the sustainable development of the province.By analyzing the data of the number of disaster death and economic losses,total population,and GDP in Hunan Province from 2010 to 2020,and referring to relevant domestic and foreign researches,a study on the accept-able level of natural disaster risk was carried out.The willingness coefficientβ=0.01 is taken to fix the accept-able risk standard for personal life;the per capita GDP is used to quantify the acceptable economic risk for individuals;according to the minimum reasonable and feasible criteria,models of acceptable criteria for social life and economic risk are respectively constructed.The results show that the personal acceptable and tolerable life risks are 10^(-6)/a and 10^(-5)/a respectively,that the personal acceptable economic risk index is 0.01,i.e.the accept-able risk range of personal economic risk does not exceed 1%of per capita GDP;and that the probability of 100 deaths due to the disaster greater than 10^(-9),and the probability of economic loss of 1 billion yuan greater than 10^(-2),are unacceptable risks.The research results can be used to assist the assessment,decision-making and management of natural disaster risks in Hunan Province.
作者
刘健康
刘丙秋
匡文龙
肖拥军
林云志
卢正新
LIU Jiankang;LIU Bingqiu;KUANG Wenlong;XIAO Yongjun;LIN Yunzhi;LU Zhengxin(Hunan Geological Exploration Institute of CCGMB,Changsha 410018,Hunan,China;School of Earth Science and Spatail Information Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,Hunan,China)
出处
《西北地质》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第1期55-63,共9页
Northwestern Geology
基金
湖南省自然科学基金项目“库岸斜坡软弱夹层泥化损伤机制及工程效应研究”(2020JJ4298)
“高温矿山渗滤液条件下膨润土防水毯的渗透性能变化规律及其机理研究”(2022JJ30244)
湖南省自然资源科技计划项目“基于高分遥感影像的矿山越界开采动态监测”(2022-23)联合资助。
