摘要
针对交通流与危险品运输风险的关系,从对事故概率和事故后果的影响角度出发,构建了考虑交通流的运输风险评价模型.引入动态风险饱和度,构建了连续的动态交通影响参数计算模型,对事故概率进行修正.基于速度-密度线性模型分析了路上人口与交通量的关系,根据交通波理论建立了交通流与交通延误的关系,用于评价对事故发生对路上暴露人口和交通延误的影响,并将其转化为经济指标度量.以兰州市某区域液氯运输为例,采用ALOHA模拟了运输事故发生后对交通的影响,对于三条不同的运输路径,事故所造成后果严重程度分别为20.47%,68.71%和100%,模拟结果与该区域的交通状况及人口分布情况相符.
Aiming at the relationship between traffic flow and dangerous goods transportation risk,a transportation risk evaluation model considering traffic flow was constructed from the perspective of its influence on accident probability and accident consequence.By introducing dynamic risk saturation,a continuous dynamic traffic impact parameter calculation model was constructed to correct the accident probability.Based on the speed-density linear model,the relationship between population and traffic volume on the road was analyzed,and the relationship between traffic flow and traffic delay was established according to the traffic wave theory,which was used to evaluate the impact of accidents on exposed population and traffic delay on the road and transform it into economic indicators.Taking the transportation of liquid chlorine in a certain area of Lanzhou as an example,the impact of the transportation accident on traffic was simulated by ALOHA.For three different transportation routes,the severity of the accident is 20.47%,68.71%and 100%respectively,and the simulation results are consistent with the traffic situation and population distribution in this area.
作者
张吉祥
柴获
ZHANG Jixiang;CHAI Huo(College of Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》
2023年第6期1035-1041,共7页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）
基金
国家自然科学基金(71961015)。
关键词
风险评价
交通流
动态交通影响参数
暴露人口
交通延误
risk assessment
traffic flow
dynamic traffic influence parameters
exposed population
traffic delay
