摘要
在柯布—道格拉斯生产函数的基础上,尝试构建了黄河流域“经济规模—水资源边际效益”异速增长模型,并通过多元线性回归模型与地理加权回归模型探究了水资源边际效益的关键影响因素及其空间异质性。结果表明:2007—2020年黄河流域三次产业水资源边际效益的多年平均值分别为102.34元/m^(3)、3755.56元/m^(3)、457.73元/m^(3),总体呈现增长趋势。农业经济规模—水资源边际效益以正异速增长为主,工业呈现先负异速后正异速的阶段性变化趋势,第三产业以负异速增长为主。工业废水达标率、有效灌溉面积、第一产业比例、人均绿地面积、第三产业比例为黄河流域水资源边际效益的主要影响因素。研究结果有助于正确认识黄河流域经济增长与水资源之间的权衡与协同。
On the basis of the Cobb-Douglas production function,for the first time,we constructed an allometric growth model of"economic scale-marginal benefit of water resources"in the Yellow River Basin(YRB),and further explored the key factors affecting the marginal benefits of water resources and their spatial heterogeneity through multiple linear regression models and geographically weighted regression models.The results show that the multi-year averages of the marginal benefits of water resources of the three industries in the YRB from 2007 to 2020 were 102.34 yuan/m^(3),3755.56 yuan/m^(3),and 457.73 yuan/m^(3),respectively,showing an overall growth trend.The scale of agricultural economy-the marginal benefit of water resources was dominated by positive allometric growth,the industry presented a phased change trend of first negative allometric growth and then positive allometric growth,and the tertiary industry was mainly in negative allometric growth.The industrial wastewater discharge standard-meeting rate,the effective irrigation area,the proportion of the primary industry,the per capita green area,and the proportion of the tertiary industry were the main factors affecting the marginal benefit of water resources in the YRB.The research results are beneficial to correctly understand the trade-off and synergy between economic growth and water resources in the YRB.
作者
马维兢
张闻顺
李程祎
寇敬雯
王梅梅
薛冰
MA Wei-jing;ZHANG Wen-shun;LI Cheng-yi;KOU Jing-wen;WANG Mei-mei;XUE Bing(College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;School of Economics and Management,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;Institute of Applied Ecology,CAS,Shenyang 110016,China)
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第12期3116-3134,共19页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42201302)
兰州大学“双一流”建设人才引进项目(561120213)。
关键词
边际效益
异速增长
柯布—道格拉斯函数
地理加权回归
黄河流域
marginal benefit
allometric growth
Cobb-Douglas function
geographically weighted regression
Yellow River Basin
